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Activision Blizzard Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $11.32 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-09-28), Activision Blizzard's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $11.32.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history with more than 5 years. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, the data will not be stored into our database.

Activision Blizzard's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Activision Blizzard is -566.39%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ATVI' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.16   Med: 5.51   Max: 13.46
Current: 6.64

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Activision Blizzard was 13.46. The lowest was 2.16. And the median was 5.51.

ATVI's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
83.87% of 31 companies
in the Interactive Media industry
Industry Median: 3.14 vs ATVI: 6.64

Activision Blizzard Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Activision Blizzard Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.54 7.41 10.08 14.90 12.81

Activision Blizzard Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 12.81 12.81 12.81 10.25 10.25

Competitive Comparison

For the Electronic Gaming & Multimedia subindustry, Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Activision Blizzard Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Activision Blizzard Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. H-Model formula is applied here, in which dividends are used in the calculation with two stage of dividend growth. The calculation for H-Model DDM valuation shows as below.

The H-model formula consists of two parts. The first component of the equation adds the value from the high growth rate period, which is called growth stage. The second component of the formula considers the value of the stock based on the long-term growth rate, which is called the terminal stage. It ignores the high growth rate period. In the growth stage, the dividends of company grows at a faster rate. As it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 12.10%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average dividend growth rate in the past 5 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 12.10% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 12.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: dividends per share = $0.470.
GuruFocus DCF calculator applies H-Model to the calculation here, using dividends per share TTM as the default.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) = Dividends per Share *( g1 - g2 ) / ( d - g2 ) * y1 / 2
+ Dividends per Share * ( 1 + g2 ) / ( d - g2 )
= 0.470 * (0.121 - 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04) * 10 / 2
+ 0.470 * ( 1 + 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04)
= 11.32

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (11.32 - 75.435) / 11.32
= -566.39 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Activision Blizzard  (NAS:ATVI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 5 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Activision Blizzard Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Activision Blizzard's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Activision Blizzard Business Description

Activision Blizzard logo
Address
2701 Olympic Boulevard, Building B, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90404
Activision Blizzard was formed in 2008 by the merger of Activision, one of the largest console video game publishers, and Blizzard, one of largest PC video game publishers. The combined firm remains one of the world's largest video game publishers. Activision's impressive franchise portfolio includes World of Warcraft, which boasts more than $8 billion of lifetime sales, and Call of Duty, which has sold over 175 million copies across 14 titles over 12 years.
Executives
Meservey Lulu Cheng director 2701 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD BUILDING B SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Bulatao Brian officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Dixton Grant Michael officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Zerza Armin officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Macartney Claudine officer: Chief People Officer AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. 175 WATER ST. NEW YORK NY 10038
Ostroff Dawn director 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 91405
Yang Jesse officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Alegre Daniel officer: President and COO 9800 59TH AVENUE NORTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55317
Wereb Stephen G officer: Principal Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Walther Christopher B officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Bowers Reveta F director C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Johnson Collister officer: President and COO C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Neumann Spencer Adam officer: Chief Financial Officer SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304 NEW YORK NY 10152
Asac Ii Lp 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701
Asac Ii Llc 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701

Activision Blizzard Headlines

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