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Patterson Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $18.89 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-09-26), Patterson's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $18.89.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history with more than 5 years. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, the data will not be stored into our database.

Patterson's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Patterson is -32.61%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Patterson was 17.56. The lowest was 1.58. And the median was 2.52.


Patterson Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Patterson Annual Data
Trend Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Apr17 Apr18 Apr19 Apr20 Apr21 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Patterson Quarterly Data
Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Distribution subindustry, Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Patterson Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Medical Distribution industry and Healthcare sector, Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Patterson Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. H-Model formula is applied here, in which dividends are used in the calculation with two stage of dividend growth. The calculation for H-Model DDM valuation shows as below.

The H-model formula consists of two parts. The first component of the equation adds the value from the high growth rate period, which is called growth stage. The second component of the formula considers the value of the stock based on the long-term growth rate, which is called the terminal stage. It ignores the high growth rate period. In the growth stage, the dividends of company grows at a faster rate. As it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average dividend growth rate in the past 5 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 0.90% which is lower than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: dividends per share = $1.040.
GuruFocus DCF calculator applies H-Model to the calculation here, using dividends per share TTM as the default.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) = Dividends per Share *( g1 - g2 ) / ( d - g2 ) * y1 / 2
+ Dividends per Share * ( 1 + g2 ) / ( d - g2 )
= 1.040 * (0.05 - 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04) * 10 / 2
+ 1.040 * ( 1 + 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04)
= 18.89

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (18.89 - 25.05) / 18.89
= -32.61 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Patterson  (NAS:PDCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 5 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Patterson Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Patterson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Patterson Business Description

Patterson logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1031 Mendota Heights Road, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55120
Patterson is a leading dental distributor and wholesaler of consumable products and equipment operating through two business segments, Patterson Dental and Patterson Animal Health. The firm offers dental and veterinary practice management products, including office software products, technical, financial, and educational services, primarily to two highly fragmented market segments throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company began as a dental distributor in 1877 and expanded to become a major supplier of animal health products to vets and production companies through an acquisition of Animal Health International in 2015. Patterson also has a presence in the U.K. animal health market.
Executives
Mckoy Philip director 120 BROADWAY SUITE 200 SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Rogan Timothy E officer: President - Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Shirley Eric R officer: President-Patterson Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Zurbay Donald officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ST. JUDE MEDICAL, INC. ONE ST JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE ST. PAUL MN 55117
Malecha Francis Joseph director 9900 WEST 109TH STREET, SUITE 100 OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Frohning Andrea L. officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 13515 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Frenzel Robert director 414 NICOLLET MALL MINNEAPOLIS MN 55401
Goedken Dennis W officer: Interim CFO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Walchirk Mark S director, officer: President & CEO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Pohlman Kevin M officer: President - Animal Health 822 7TH STREET, SUITE 740 GREELEY CO 80631
Blanco Alex N director ONE BAXTER PARKWAY DEERFIELD IL 60015
Misiak David G officer: President, Patterson Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Baker Kelly A officer: CHRO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ST. PAUL MN 55120
Korsh Les B officer: VP, General Counsel 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55110
Adent John Edward officer: CEO - Subsidiary 822 7TH STREET, SUITE 740 GREELEY CO 80631

Patterson Headlines

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