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ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARMOUR Residential REIT) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $22.60 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


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What is ARMOUR Residential REIT Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-25), ARMOUR Residential REIT's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $22.60. The stock price of ARMOUR Residential REIT is $18.73. Therefore, ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.8.

The historical rank and industry rank for ARMOUR Residential REIT's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ARR' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.28   Med: 0.47   Max: 1.68
Current: 0.83

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of ARMOUR Residential REIT was 1.68. The lowest was 0.28. And the median was 0.47.

ARR's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
65.39% of 549 companies
in the REITs industry
Industry Median: 0.66 vs ARR: 0.83

ARMOUR Residential REIT Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for ARMOUR Residential REIT's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

ARMOUR Residential REIT Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

ARMOUR Residential REIT Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 170.38 61.52 29.17 30.08 22.60

ARMOUR Residential REIT Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 30.08 29.50 28.38 22.43 22.60

Competitive Comparison of ARMOUR Residential REIT's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



ARMOUR Residential REIT Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get ARMOUR Residential REIT's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $9.38.

ARMOUR Residential REIT's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*9.37808+1271.184*0.8)/48.949
=22.60

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


ARMOUR Residential REIT  (NYSE:ARR) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

ARMOUR Residential REIT's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=18.73/22.599640828109
=0.83

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


ARMOUR Residential REIT Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARMOUR Residential REIT) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3001 Ocean Drive, Suite 201, Vero Beach, FL, USA, 32963
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is a real estate investment trust that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities or RMBS. These are issued or guaranteed by U.S.-government-sponsored enterprises, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. The company's investment portfolio is composed of mortgage-backed securities, adjustable-rate mortgage securities, and multifamily mortgage-backed securities. In terms of total fair value, most Armour's investments are long-term, fixed-rate agency RMBS. Multifamily RMBS also represents a substantial amount. Fannie Mae guarantees most of the company's holdings. Armour derives substantially all its revenue as interest income from its investments.
Executives
Daniel C Staton director HOLLAND & KNIGHT LLP, 701 BRICKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MIAMI FL 33131
James R Mountain officer: Chief Financial Officer ARMOUR RESIDENTIAL REIT, INC., 3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Jeffrey J Zimmer director, officer: Co-CEO and President 3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Scott Ulm director, officer: Co-CEO and CIO 3005 HAMMOCK WAY, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Robert C Hain director HOLLAND & KNIGHT LLP, 701 BRICKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MIAMI FL 33131
Hollihan John P Iii director HOLLAND & KNIGHT LLP, 701 BRICKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3300, MIAMI FL 33131
Mark Gruber officer: Chief Operating Officer 3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Z Jamie Behar director 200 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 2100, IRVINE CA 92618
Marc H Bell director 6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Gordon Harper officer: VP Finance and Controller 3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Carolyn Downey director 54 ROSEBROOK ROAD, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Thomas K Guba director 3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Staton Bell Blank Check Llc 10 percent owner 6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Richard Steiner other: Director of Enterprise [EST] 4044 ROSE HILL AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45229
Ezra Shashoua other: Officer of Enterprise [EST] 6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY, BOCA RATON FL 33487