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AeroVironment Inc  (NAS:AVAV) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $18.03 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, AeroVironment Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $18.03. The stock price of AeroVironment Inc is $42.73. Therefore, AeroVironment Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 2.4.

NAS:AVAV' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.05   Max: 3.88
Current: 2.37

1.05
3.88

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of AeroVironment Inc was 3.88. The lowest was 1.05. And the median was 1.51.

NAS:AVAV's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
71% of the 99 Companies
in the Global industry.

( Industry Median: 1.69 vs. NAS:AVAV: 2.37 )

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

AeroVironment Inc Annual Data

Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Apr17
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 18.52 20.55 20.14 19.14 16.19

AeroVironment Inc Quarterly Data

Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 19.21 18.57 17.44 16.19 18.03

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Here AeroVironment Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

AeroVironment Inc Quarterly Data

total_freecashflow

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get AeroVironment Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $12.21.

AeroVironment Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jul17)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.52035159596*12.2063333333+380.722*0.8)/23.336
=18.03

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

AeroVironment Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=42.73/18.0316328861
=2.37

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


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