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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc  (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $167.83 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $167.83. The stock price of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is $472.76. Therefore, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 2.8.

NYSE:CMG' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.78   Max: 6.37
Current: 2.82

1.78
6.37

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc was 6.37. The lowest was 1.78. And the median was 3.41.

NYSE:CMG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked higher than
63% of the 163 Companies
in the Global industry.

( Industry Median: 2.44 vs. NYSE:CMG: 2.82 )

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Annual Data

Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 132.00 173.60 200.20 169.12 162.26

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Quarterly Data

Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 167.39 162.26 171.80 166.96 167.83

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Stockholders Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Here Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Quarterly Data

total_freecashflow

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $312.32.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity(Sep18)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(11.3770674159*312.324833333+1435.837*0.8)/28.017
=167.83

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=472.76/167.827043741
=2.82

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


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