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Netflix (NFLX) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $57.87 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-23), Netflix's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $57.87. The stock price of Netflix is $574.59. Therefore, Netflix's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 9.9.

The historical rank and industry rank for Netflix's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

NFLX' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 7.85   Med: 19.65   Max: 381.27
Current: 9.94

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Netflix was 381.27. The lowest was 7.85. And the median was 19.65.

NFLX's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
95.2% of 604 companies
in the Media - Diversified industry
Industry Median: 0.89 vs NFLX: 9.94

Netflix Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Netflix's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Netflix Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -42.70 -25.89 -14.41 9.55 57.87

Netflix Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 25.87 36.97 49.00 57.87 -

Competitive Comparison

For the Entertainment subindustry, Netflix's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Netflix Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Netflix's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Netflix's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Netflix Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Netflix's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $1,037.36.

Netflix's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Mar24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*1037.35712+21365.41*0.8)/441.654
=73.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Netflix  (NAS:NFLX) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Netflix's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=574.59/73.610127461121
=7.81

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Netflix Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Netflix's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Netflix (NFLX) Business Description

Address
121 Albright Way, Los Gatos, CA, USA, 95032
Netflix's relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service. It has the biggest television entertainment subscriber base in both the United States and the collective international market, with almost 250 million subscribers globally. Netflix has exposure to nearly the entire global population outside of China. The firm has traditionally avoided live programming or sports content, instead focusing on on-demand access to episodic television, movies, and documentaries. The firm recently began introducing ad-supported subscription plans, giving the firm exposure to the advertising market in addition to the subscription fees that have historically accounted for nearly all its revenue.
Executives
Reed Hastings director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, other: CEO 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Ann Mather director
Gregory K Peters officer: Intl. Development Officer C/O NETFLIX, INC., 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Richard N Barton director C/O IAC, 152 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
David A Hyman officer: General Counsel C/O NETFLIX, INC., 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Theodore A Sarandos officer: Chief Content Officer C/O NETFLIX, INC, 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Jay C Hoag director 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Timothy M Haley director 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 2-290, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jeffrey William Karbowski officer: Chief Accounting Officer 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Kenneth A Barker officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O ELECTRONIC ARTS INC., 209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Dicus Marian Lee officer: Chief Marketing Officer 526 WEST 111TH STREET, APARTMENT 3C, NEW YORK NY 10025
Meabe Sergio Ezama officer: Chief Talent Officer 59 HILLSIDE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jessica Neal officer: Chief Talent Officer 100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Strive Masiyiwa director 265 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
John Bozoma Saint officer: Chief Marketing Officer 9255 SUNSET BLVD 2ND FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90069

Netflix (NFLX) Headlines

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