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Novagold Resources Inc  (AMEX:NG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $0.36 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Novagold Resources Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $0.36. The stock price of Novagold Resources Inc is $4.17. Therefore, Novagold Resources Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 11.6.

AMEX:NG' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.05   Max: 523
Current: 11.58

0.05
523

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Novagold Resources Inc was 523.00. The lowest was 0.05. And the median was 33.06.

AMEX:NG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
89% of the 393 Companies
in the Global industry.

( Industry Median: 2.03 vs. AMEX:NG: 11.58 )

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Novagold Resources Inc Annual Data

Nov07 Nov08 Nov09 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -4.36 -1.62 -0.20 0.10 0.21

Novagold Resources Inc Quarterly Data

Nov12 Feb13 May13 Aug13 Nov13 Feb14 May14 Aug14 Nov14 Feb15 May15 Aug15 Nov15 Feb16 May16 Aug16 Nov16 Feb17 May17 Aug17
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.14 0.21 0.24 0.28 0.37

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Here Novagold Resources Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Novagold Resources Inc Quarterly Data

total_freecashflow

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Novagold Resources Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $-14.57.

Novagold Resources Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Aug17)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.52035159596*-14.5743333333+300.31*0.8)/321.683
=0.32

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Novagold Resources Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=4.17/0.315513167901
=13.22

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


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