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Novogen Ltd  (NAS:NVGN) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $-8.82 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Novogen Ltd's projected FCF intrinsic value is $-8.82. The stock price of Novogen Ltd is $2.98. Therefore, Novogen Ltd's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Novogen Ltd was 11.49. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 3.13.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Novogen Ltd Annual Data

Jun07 Jun08 Jun09 Jun10 Jun11 Jun12 Jun13 Jun14 Jun15 Jun16
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -44.05 -103.76 -71.50 -14.62 -8.98

Novogen Ltd Semi-Annual Data

Jun07 Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.76 -14.62 1.39 -8.98 1.10

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Here Novogen Ltd's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Novogen Ltd Annual Data

total_freecashflow

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 6 will get Novogen Ltd's FCF(6 year avg) = $.

Novogen Ltd's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jun16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.52035159596*-7.35026494149+25.1154700222*0.8)/4.274
=-11.67

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Novogen Ltd's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=2.98/-11.6716730343
=

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


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