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Turning Point Brands (Turning Point Brands) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $23.25 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-24), Turning Point Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $23.25. The stock price of Turning Point Brands is $28.06. Therefore, Turning Point Brands's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.2.

The historical rank and industry rank for Turning Point Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

TPB' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.88   Med: 1.5   Max: 3.05
Current: 1.21

During the past 11 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Turning Point Brands was 3.05. The lowest was 0.88. And the median was 1.50.

TPB's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
65.63% of 32 companies
in the Tobacco Products industry
Industry Median: 1.05 vs TPB: 1.21

Turning Point Brands Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Turning Point Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Turning Point Brands Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 14.63 20.34 24.47 23.25

Turning Point Brands Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 24.47 20.56 22.08 22.83 23.25

Competitive Comparison

For the Tobacco subindustry, Turning Point Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Turning Point Brands Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Turning Point Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Turning Point Brands's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Turning Point Brands Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Turning Point Brands's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $37.68.

Turning Point Brands's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*37.67984+150.976*0.8)/20.622
=23.25

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Turning Point Brands  (NYSE:TPB) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Turning Point Brands's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=28.06/23.252163945287
=1.21

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Turning Point Brands Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Turning Point Brands (Turning Point Brands) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5201 Interchange Way, Louisville, KY, USA, 40229
Turning Point Brands Inc operates as an independent provider of Other Tobacco Products (OTP) in the U.S. It offers a wide range of products across the OTP spectrum including moist snuff tobacco (MST), loose-leaf chewing tobacco, premium cigarette papers, make- your-own (MYO) cigar wraps, cigars, liquid vapor products, and tobacco vaporizer products. It operates in three segments namely Zig-Zag products; Stoker's products and NewGen products. The company generates maximum revenue from the Zig-Zag products segment.
Executives
Stephen Usher director 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
David Edward Glazek director, officer: Executive Chairman 767 FIFTH AVENUE 12TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10153
Graham Purdy officer: President & CEO 12442 POPLAR WOOD DRIVE, GOSHEN KY 40026
Brittani Cushman officer: Sr VP, General Counsel 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Luis Reformina officer: Sr VP, CFO 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Rohith Reddy director 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Zimmerman Arnold director 925 PARK AVE, 2A, NEW YORK NY 10028
Assia Grazioli-venier director C/O MARQUEE RAINE ACQUISITION CORP., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ashley Davis Frushone director 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Diao H.c. Charles director 1775 TYSONS BOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102
Standard General L.p. 10 percent owner 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Yavor Efremov director 1 ALLIED DRIVE, SUITE 1705, LITTLE ROCK TX 72202
Lawrence Wexler director, officer: President and CEO 393 CARTER STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Standard Diversified Inc. 10 percent owner 767 5TH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Robert M. Lavan officer: SVP and CFO 5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229