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O'Reilly Automotive (NAS:ORLY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $403.90 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2023-05-28), O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $403.90. The stock price of O'Reilly Automotive is $923.00. Therefore, O'Reilly Automotive's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.3.

The historical rank and industry rank for O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ORLY' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.44   Med: 2.13   Max: 68.86
Current: 2.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of O'Reilly Automotive was 68.86. The lowest was 1.44. And the median was 2.13.

ORLY's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
82.72% of 712 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.77 vs ORLY: 2.29

O'Reilly Automotive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

O'Reilly Automotive Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 166.81 192.54 252.28 334.06 398.43

O'Reilly Automotive Quarterly Data
Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 347.72 347.30 377.35 398.43 403.90

Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

O'Reilly Automotive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



O'Reilly Automotive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get O'Reilly Automotive's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $1,832.37.

O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Mar23)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*1832.37456+-1625.017/0.8)/62.398
=403.90

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


O'Reilly Automotive  (NAS:ORLY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

O'Reilly Automotive's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=923.00/403.90199317632
=2.29

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


O'Reilly Automotive Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of O'Reilly Automotive's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


O'Reilly Automotive (NAS:ORLY) Business Description

O'Reilly Automotive logo
Address
233 South Patterson Avenue, Springfield, MO, USA, 65802
O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest sellers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY customers (41% and 59% of 2021 sales, respectively). The company sells branded as well as own-label products, with the latter category comprising nearly half of sales. O'Reilly had 5,784 stores as of the end of 2021, spread across 47 U.S. states and including 25 stores in Mexico. The firm serves professional and DIY customers through its stores and also boasts approximately 750 sales personnel targeting commercial buyers.
Executives
Philip M Hopper officer: SVP OF REAL ESTATE 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Mark Joseph Merz officer: SVP OF FINANCE 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Christopher Andrew Mancini officer: SVP OF CENTRAL STORE OPS/SALES 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Charles Francis Rogers officer: SVP OF PRO SALES & OPS SUPPORT 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Fred Alan Whitfield director 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Maria Sastre director C/O DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC., 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837
Andrea Weiss director 23 RAMRAPO COURT WEST, GLENROCK NJ 07452
Jonathan Wyatt Andrews officer: SVP OF HR & TRAINING 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Brent Gentry Kirby officer: SVP OF OMNICHANNEL 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Richard Darin Venosdel officer: SVP OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Doug D Bragg officer: SVP OF CENTRAL STORE OPS/SALES 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Jason Lee Tarrant officer: SVP OF WESTERN STORE OPS/SALES 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Dana Perlman director C/O 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Jeremy Adam Fletcher officer: SVP OF FINANCE/CONTROLLER 233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Robert Allen Dumas officer: SVP OF EASTERN STORE OPS/SALES 233 S PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802

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