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Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $60.64 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Penske Automotive Group's projected FCF intrinsic value is $60.64. The stock price of Penske Automotive Group is $44.11. Therefore, Penske Automotive Group's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.7.

NYSE:PAG' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.47   Max: 4.84
Current: 0.73

0.47
4.84

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Penske Automotive Group was 4.84. The lowest was 0.47. And the median was 1.33.

NYSE:PAG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked higher than
65% of the 816 Companies
in the Autos industry.

( Industry Median: 1.01 vs. NYSE:PAG: 0.73 )

Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Penske Automotive Group Annual Data

Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 35.92 37.47 39.75 58.44 62.71

Penske Automotive Group Quarterly Data

Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 59.36 64.46 66.23 62.71 60.64

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Penske Automotive Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Stockholders Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Here Penske Automotive Group's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Penske Automotive Group Quarterly Data

total_freecashflow

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Penske Automotive Group's FCF(6 year avg) = $224.08.

Penske Automotive Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity(Mar19)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.4108273697*224.083333333+2641.2*0.8)/84.400
=60.64

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Penske Automotive Group  (NYSE:PAG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Penske Automotive Group's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=44.11/60.641029618
=0.73

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation


Penske Automotive Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Headlines

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