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Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $27.75 (As of Apr. 24, 2024)


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Douglas Dynamics Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-24), Douglas Dynamics's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $27.75. The stock price of Douglas Dynamics is $22.35. Therefore, Douglas Dynamics's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.8.

The historical rank and industry rank for Douglas Dynamics's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

PLOW' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.66   Med: 1.03   Max: 1.22
Current: 0.81

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Douglas Dynamics was 1.22. The lowest was 0.66. And the median was 1.03.

PLOW's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
62.01% of 887 companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 1.05 vs PLOW: 0.81

Douglas Dynamics Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Douglas Dynamics's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Douglas Dynamics Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 49.83 35.11 33.64 31.26 27.75

Douglas Dynamics Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 31.26 22.82 22.53 21.98 27.75

Competitive Comparison

For the Auto Parts subindustry, Douglas Dynamics's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Douglas Dynamics Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Douglas Dynamics's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Douglas Dynamics's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Douglas Dynamics Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Douglas Dynamics's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $47.53.

Douglas Dynamics's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*47.53024+231.565*0.8)/22.984
=27.75

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Douglas Dynamics  (NYSE:PLOW) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Douglas Dynamics's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=22.35/27.747850515167
=0.81

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Douglas Dynamics Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Douglas Dynamics's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11270 W Park Place, Suite 300, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224
Douglas Dynamics Inc is a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial vehicle attachments and equipment. The Company's portfolio includes snow and ice management attachments sold under the BLIZZARD, FISHER, HENDERSON, SNOWEX and WESTERN brands, turf care equipment under the TURFEX brand and industrial maintenance equipment under the SWEEPEX brand. The Company's portfolio also includes the upfit of attachments and storage solutions under the HENDERSON brand, and the DEJANA brand and its related sub-brands. The Company also leases fifteen manufacturing and upfit and service facilities located in Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The Company conducts business in two segments: Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions.
Executives
Robert L Mccormick officer: President and CEO C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
James L Janik director C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Genderen Mark Van officer: President - Work Truck Attm. C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Linda R Evans officer: VP of Human Resources 7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Jon J Sisulak officer: Controller 7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Sarah C Lauber officer: CFO and Secretary 833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joher Akolawala director 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Keith Hagelin officer: VP, Operations C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Jonathon P. Sievert officer: President - Henderson Products C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Lisa R Bacus director 1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Andrew Dejana officer: * See Remarks below C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Robert J Young officer: Controller C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Mark Adamson officer: VP, Sales and Marketing C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Michael W Wickham director C/O ROADWAY CORP, 1077 GORGE BLVD, AKRON OH 44310
Margaret S Dano director FLEETWOOD ENTERPRISES INC, 3125 MYERS STREET PO BOX 7638, RIVERSIDE CA 92513-7638

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