Alcoa Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Alcoa's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
|
Alcoa Annual Data
|
|
Trend |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
Dec16 |
Dec17 |
Dec18 |
Dec19 |
Dec20 |
Dec21 |
Dec22 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2.96 |
-2.66 |
-2.12 |
-2.40 |
-1.96 |
|
Alcoa Quarterly Data
|
|
Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
Sep23 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2.40 |
-2.23 |
-1.10 |
-1.20 |
-1.96 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Alcoa for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.049 | + | 0.528 * 2.5709 | + | 0.404 * 1.0259 | + | 0.892 * 0.8474 | + | 0.115 * 1.0184 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 1.3074 | + | 4.679 * -0.034758 | - | 0.327 * 1.0418 |
| = | -1.96 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $808 Mil.
Revenue was 2595 + 2602 + 2684 + 2670 = $10,551 Mil.
Gross Profit was 170 + 133 + 169 + 266 = $738 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,405 Mil.
Total Assets was $14,155 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $6,785 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $632 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $226 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,030 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,836 Mil.
Net Income was -150 + -168 + -102 + -231 = $-651 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 90 + -107 + -30 + -203 = $-250 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 198 + 69 + -13 + -163 = $91 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was $909 Mil.
Revenue was 2663 + 2851 + 3644 + 3293 = $12,451 Mil.
Gross Profit was 67 + 183 + 877 + 1112 = $2,239 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $5,250 Mil.
Total Assets was $14,756 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $6,493 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $617 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $204 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,004 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,865 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (808 / 10551) | / | (909 / 12451) |
| = | 0.07658 | / | 0.073006 |
| | = | 1.049 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (2239 / 12451) | / | (738 / 10551) |
| = | 0.179825 | / | 0.069946 |
| | = | 2.5709 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (4405 + 6785) / 14155) | / | (1 - (5250 + 6493) / 14756) |
| = | 0.209467 | / | 0.204188 |
| | = | 1.0259 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 10551 | / | 12451 |
| | = | 0.8474 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (617 / (617 + 6493)) | / | (632 / (632 + 6785)) |
| = | 0.086779 | / | 0.08521 |
| | = | 1.0184 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (226 / 10551) | / | (204 / 12451) |
| = | 0.02142 | / | 0.016384 |
| | = | 1.3074 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((1836 + 3030) / 14155) | / | ((1865 + 3004) / 14756) |
| = | 0.343765 | / | 0.329967 |
| | = | 1.0418 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (-651 - -250 | - | 91) | / | 14155 |
| | = | -0.034758 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Alcoa has a M-score of -1.96 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
AA has been successfully added to your