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GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with Autodesk Inc $ADSK.
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Autodesk Inc (NAS:ADSK)
Beneish M-Score
-3.28 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Autodesk Inc has a M-score of -3.28 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ADSK' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.71   Max: -1.6
Current: -3.28

-3.71
-1.6

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Autodesk Inc was -1.60. The lowest was -3.71. And the median was -2.88.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Autodesk Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0671+0.528 * 1.008+0.404 * 1.0473+0.892 * 0.8461+0.115 * 0.9783
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2101+4.679 * -0.1347-0.327 * 1.2457
=-3.28

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Apr17) TTM:Last Year (Apr16) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $232 Mil.
Revenue was 485.7 + 478.8 + 489.6 + 550.7 = $2,005 Mil.
Gross Profit was 407.5 + 395.9 + 408.1 + 465.6 = $1,677 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,140 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,431 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $150 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $130 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,329 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,050 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,092 Mil.
Net Income was -129.6 + -173.4 + -142.8 + -98.2 = $-544 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 6.1 + 0.3 + -3.9 = $3 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 45.2 + 15.6 + 7.7 + -18 = $51 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $256 Mil.
Revenue was 511.9 + 648.3 + 599.8 + 609.5 = $2,370 Mil.
Gross Profit was 419.4 + 553.4 + 508.8 + 516.5 = $1,998 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,629 Mil.
Total Assets was $5,206 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $175 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $145 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,298 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,475 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,488 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(231.5 / 2004.8) / (256.4 / 2369.5)
=0.11547287 / 0.10820848
=1.0671

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1998.1 / 2369.5) / (1677.1 / 2004.8)
=0.84325807 / 0.8365423
=1.008

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2139.7 + 150.4) / 4431.4) / (1 - (2629 + 174.9) / 5205.6)
=0.48321072 / 0.46136853
=1.0473

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2004.8 / 2369.5
=0.8461

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(145.4 / (145.4 + 174.9)) / (130.2 / (130.2 + 150.4))
=0.45394942 / 0.4640057
=0.9783

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1328.8 / 2004.8) / (1297.8 / 2369.5)
=0.66280926 / 0.54771049
=1.2101

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1092.4 + 2049.6) / 4431.4) / ((1488.4 + 1474.5) / 5205.6)
=0.70903101 / 0.5691755
=1.2457

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-544 - 2.5 - 50.5) / 4431.4
=-0.1347

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Autodesk Inc has a M-score of -3.28 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Autodesk Inc Annual Data

Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16Jan17
DSRI 1.08660.76821.18411.00781.09311.20070.87020.98031.42890.8532
GMI 0.97520.99931.01950.98761.0030.99971.01991.0181.01391.0244
AQI 0.97441.2821.04760.89861.0721.00170.93111.1941.00741.0645
SGI 1.18051.0660.74021.13891.13521.04360.98341.10480.99680.8111
DEPI 1.03691.00230.8260.94271.05720.9971.05891.03991.03350.9899
SGAI 1.01011.00371.13510.92260.96110.97270.99111.09991.02481.2343
LVGI 1.03341.00120.87041.08460.94731.4050.95261.10341.27881.2237
TATA -0.1552-0.1672-0.0809-0.115-0.0899-0.0723-0.0739-0.1227-0.1372-0.1578
M-score -3.00-3.30-2.89-2.96-2.63-2.72-2.95-2.94-2.81-3.60

Autodesk Inc Quarterly Data

Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16Oct16Jan17Apr17
DSRI 0.98030.87451.00780.93141.42890.87870.85550.82130.85321.0671
GMI 1.0181.01631.01521.01361.01391.02171.01831.0191.02451.008
AQI 1.1941.15710.95460.99291.00740.96731.10661.08631.06451.0473
SGI 1.10481.11771.07051.03540.99680.92330.91020.87310.81110.8461
DEPI 1.03990.99311.00370.97411.03351.06781.06611.06350.98990.9783
SGAI 1.08881.09331.08431.05571.02481.06221.07671.13481.23731.2101
LVGI 1.10341.05291.29481.30861.27881.34721.15241.19271.22371.2457
TATA -0.1227-0.1012-0.1447-0.1485-0.1368-0.1968-0.1487-0.1602-0.1583-0.1347
M-score -2.94-2.93-3.21-3.32-2.81-3.70-3.39-3.54-3.60-3.28
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