ARGO has been successfully added to your Stock Email Alerts list.
You can manage your stock email alerts here.
ARGO has been removed from your Stock Email Alerts list.
Please enter Portfolio Name for new portfolio.
Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.
The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -3.01 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Argo Group International Holdings's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Argo Group International Holdings was -1.97. The lowest was -3.29. And the median was -2.43.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Argo Group International Holdings for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.1062 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 0.921 | + | 0.892 * 0.7884 | + | 0.115 * 1.4872 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 2.1555 | + | 4.679 * -0.048925 | - | 0.327 * 1.1125 | |||||||
= | -3.01 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This Year (Sep23) TTM: | Last Year (Sep22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $3,205 Mil. Revenue was 381.5 + 363.7 + 399.4 + 371.7 = $1,516 Mil. Gross Profit was 381.5 + 363.7 + 399.4 + 371.7 = $1,516 Mil. Total Current Assets was $7,030 Mil. Total Assets was $8,440 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $52 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $15 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $284 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $3,177 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $459 Mil. Net Income was -46.9 + 2.2 + -33.8 + -109.2 = $-188 Mil. Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 151.9 + 80.5 + 39.1 + -46.3 = $225 Mil. |
Total Receivables was $3,675 Mil. Revenue was 453.3 + 454.6 + 481.7 + 533.7 = $1,923 Mil. Gross Profit was 453.3 + 454.6 + 481.7 + 533.7 = $1,923 Mil. Total Current Assets was $8,076 Mil. Total Assets was $9,859 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $60 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $30 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $167 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $3,298 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $520 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (3205.2 / 1516.3) | / | (3675.1 / 1923.3) | |
= | 2.11383 | / | 1.91083 | |
= | 1.1062 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (1923.3 / 1923.3) | / | (1516.3 / 1516.3) | |
= | 1 | / | 1 | |
= | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (7029.5 + 51.6) / 8439.5) | / | (1 - (8075.5 + 60.3) / 9858.7) | |
= | 0.160957 | / | 0.174759 | |
= | 0.921 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 1516.3 | / | 1923.3 | |
= | 0.7884 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (29.9 / (29.9 + 60.3)) | / | (14.8 / (14.8 + 51.6)) | |
= | 0.331486 | / | 0.222892 | |
= | 1.4872 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (283.8 / 1516.3) | / | (167 / 1923.3) | |
= | 0.187166 | / | 0.08683 | |
= | 2.1555 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((458.8 + 3177.3) / 8439.5) | / | ((520.4 + 3297.5) / 9858.7) | |
= | 0.430843 | / | 0.387262 | |
= | 1.1125 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (-187.7 - 0 | - | 225.2) | / | 8439.5 | |
= | -0.048925 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Argo Group International Holdings has a M-score of -3.01 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Argo Group International Holdings's Beneish M-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Jessica E. Snyder | officer: President, U.S. Insurance | ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, LTD., 90 PITTS BAY RD., PEMBROKE D0 HM08 |
J Daniel Plants | director | ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1140, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
Susan Comparato | officer: Chief Administrative Officer | ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, LTD., 90 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08 |
Scott Kirk | officer: Chief Financial Officer | C/O ARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS,, LTD. 90 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08 |
Andrew Marshall Borst | officer: Chief Administrative Officer | 175 E. HOUSTON ST., SUITE 1300, SAN ANTONIO TX 78205 |
Allison Kiene | officer: SVP, General Counsel | C/OARGO GROUP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS,LTD, 110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08 |
Kevin James Rehnberg | officer: President, U.S. Operations | C/O ONEBEACON INSURANCE GROUP, LTD, 1 BEACON LANE, CANTON MA 02021 |
Thomas A Bradley | director | 199 WATER STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038 |
Timothy D Carter | officer: Chief Underwriting Officer | C/O ARGO GROUP 110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08 |
Fred Robert Donner | director | GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC, 112 S. FRENCH STREET, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
Bernard C Bailey | director | |
Samuel G Liss | director | VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310 |
Carol A. Mcfate | director | 5501 HEADQUARTERS DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024 |
Jay Stanley Bullock | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 110 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08 |
Kathleen Nealon | director | P.O. BOX 1282, HAMILTON D0 HM08 |
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker or a dealer. It has an affiliated registered investment adviser, which serves as the subadviser to an exchange traded fund. This investment adviser does not provide advice to individual investors. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The individuals or entities selected as "gurus" may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. Gurus may be added or dropped from the GuruFocus site at any time. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.