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Anglogold Ashanti Ltd  (NYSE:AU) Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd has a M-score of -3.20 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NYSE:AU' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.97   Max: 4.06
Current: -3.27

-3.97
4.06

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Anglogold Ashanti Ltd was 4.06. The lowest was -3.97. And the median was -2.62.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Annual Data

Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.44 -3.97 -3.04 -3.48 -3.27

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Semi-Annual Data

Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.48 -3.48 -3.15 -3.27 -2.46

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Anglogold Ashanti Ltd for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0442+0.528 * 0.8693+0.404 * 1.0183+0.892 * 1.024+0.115 * 0.9773
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9972+4.679 * -0.1606-0.327 * 0.8843
=-3.20

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Dec16) TTM:Last Year (Dec15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $170 Mil.
Revenue was $4,104 Mil.
Gross Profit was $841 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,166 Mil.
Total Assets was $7,153 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,111 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $809 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $97 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $760 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,144 Mil.
Net Income was $63 Mil.
Gross Profit was $-90 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $1,302 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $159 Mil.
Revenue was $4,008 Mil.
Gross Profit was $714 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,350 Mil.
Total Assets was $7,284 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,058 Mil.
(DDA) was $777 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $95 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $707 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,637 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(170 / 4104) / (159 / 4008)
=0.041423 / 0.03967066
=1.0442

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(714 / 4008) / (841 / 4104)
=0.17814371 / 0.20492203
=0.8693

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1166 + 4111) / 7153) / (1 - (1350 + 4058) / 7284)
=0.26226758 / 0.2575508
=1.0183

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4104 / 4008
=1.024

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(777 / (777 + 4058)) / (809 / (809 + 4111))
=0.16070321 / 0.16443089
=0.9773

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of c in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(97 / 4104) / (95 / 4008)
=0.02363548 / 0.02370259
=0.9972

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2144 + 760) / 7153) / ((2637 + 707) / 7284)
=0.4059835 / 0.45908841
=0.8843

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(63 - -90 - 1302) / 7153
=-0.1606

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd has a M-score of -3.20 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


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