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Nomura Holdings (BSP:NMRH34) Beneish M-Score

: -2.66 (As of Today)
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Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.66 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Nomura Holdings's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

BSP:NMRH34' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.96   Med: -2.47   Max: -1.78
Current: -2.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Nomura Holdings was -1.78. The lowest was -2.96. And the median was -2.47.


Nomura Holdings Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Nomura Holdings for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8557+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 0.9982+0.892 * 0.9216+0.115 * 1.0192
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1162+4.679 * -0.015816-0.327 * 1.0417
=-2.79

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was R$62,389 Mil.
Revenue was 12452.196 + 11137.888 + 10898.997 + 9769.415 = R$44,258 Mil.
Gross Profit was 12452.196 + 11137.888 + 10898.997 + 9769.415 = R$44,258 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$236,357 Mil.
Total Assets was R$1,863,277 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$15,886 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$2,125 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$22,900 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$182,940 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$417,969 Mil.
Net Income was 1720.255 + 1176.91 + 801.098 + 287.387 = R$3,986 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = R$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 24789.98 + -15366.14 + 10719.487 + 13312.677 = R$33,456 Mil.
Total Receivables was R$79,116 Mil.
Revenue was 14050.337 + 10604.541 + 10193.979 + 13174.571 = R$48,023 Mil.
Gross Profit was 14050.337 + 10604.541 + 10193.979 + 13174.571 = R$48,023 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$238,897 Mil.
Total Assets was R$1,914,514 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$17,314 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$2,366 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$22,261 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$191,279 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$401,418 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(62388.798 / 44258.496) / (79115.943 / 48023.428)
=1.409646 / 1.647445
=0.8557

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(48023.428 / 48023.428) / (44258.496 / 44258.496)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (236357.11 + 15885.559) / 1863277.233) / (1 - (238896.55 + 17314.414) / 1914513.614)
=0.864624 / 0.866174
=0.9982

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=44258.496 / 48023.428
=0.9216

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(2366.318 / (2366.318 + 17314.414)) / (2124.746 / (2124.746 + 15885.559))
=0.120235 / 0.117974
=1.0192

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(22899.748 / 44258.496) / (22260.595 / 48023.428)
=0.517409 / 0.463536
=1.1162

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((417969.208 + 182940.42) / 1863277.233) / ((401417.646 + 191278.947) / 1914513.614)
=0.322501 / 0.309581
=1.0417

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(3985.65 - 0 - 33456.004) / 1863277.233
=-0.015816

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Nomura Holdings has a M-score of -2.79 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Nomura Holdings Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Nomura Holdings (BSP:NMRH34) Business Description

Address
13-1, Nihonbashi 1-chome, Chuo-Ku, Tokyo, JPN, 103-8645
Nomura is Japan's largest broker, about twice the size of rival Daiwa Securities and roughly three times the size of the securities units of the three megabanks. It is also the largest asset-management company in Japan, with a similar size differential compared with its rivals. Despite its topnotch brand name in retail broking and asset management in Japan, Nomura has struggled to compete effectively in the institutional securities business against larger global rivals. In 2008, Nomura bought European and Asian assets of the failed Lehman Brothers, which led to a sharply higher cost base but did not provide commensurate revenue. Nomura has reduced the scale of these businesses but maintains its ambition to compete globally with the top players.