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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc  (NYSE:CMG) Beneish M-Score: -3.21 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc has a M-score of -3.21 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NYSE:CMG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.56   Max: -0.53
Current: -3.21

-3.56
-0.53

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc was -0.53. The lowest was -3.56. And the median was -2.74.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Annual Data

Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.43 -2.48 -2.64 -2.96 -3.52

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Quarterly Data

Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.50 -3.52 -2.86 -3.34 -3.21

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0429+0.528 * 0.909+0.404 * 0.9218+0.892 * 1.0793+0.115 * 0.8748
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0048+4.679 * -0.1488-0.327 * 1.1525
=-3.21

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep18) TTM:Last Year (Sep17) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $27 Mil.
Revenue was 1225.007 + 1266.52 + 1148.397 + 1110.1 = $4,750 Mil.
Gross Profit was 228.75 + 249.639 + 224.294 + 165.07 = $868 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $793 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,231 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,361 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $190 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $329 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $403 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 38.204 + 46.884 + 59.446 + 43.793 = $188 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -6.454 + -45.322 + -4.859 + -3.332 = $-60 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 197.079 + 94.302 + 201.116 + 87.798 = $580 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $24 Mil.
Revenue was 1128.074 + 1169.409 + 1068.829 + 1034.56 = $4,401 Mil.
Gross Profit was 181.134 + 220.4 + 189.612 + 139.646 = $731 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $656 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,064 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,332 Mil.
(DDA) was $160 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $304 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $323 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $0 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(26.868 / 4750.024) / (23.87 / 4400.872)
=0.00565639 / 0.00542393
=1.0429

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(730.792 / 4400.872) / (867.753 / 4750.024)
=0.16605618 / 0.18268392
=0.909

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (793.071 + 1361.44) / 2230.872) / (1 - (655.936 + 1331.786) / 2064.377)
=0.03422922 / 0.03713227
=0.9218

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4750.024 / 4400.872
=1.0793

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(159.978 / (159.978 + 1331.786)) / (190.204 / (190.204 + 1361.44))
=0.10724082 / 0.12258224
=0.8748

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of c in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(329.43 / 4750.024) / (303.767 / 4400.872)
=0.06935333 / 0.06902428
=1.0048

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 402.786) / 2230.872) / ((0 + 323.402) / 2064.377)
=0.18055092 / 0.1566584
=1.1525

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(188.327 - -59.967 - 580.295) / 2230.872
=-0.1488

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc has a M-score of -3.21 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


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