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Dollar Tree Inc  (NAS:DLTR) Beneish M-Score: -2.68 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Dollar Tree Inc has a M-score of -2.68 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NAS:DLTR' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -6.34   Max: 6.59
Current: -2.68

-6.34
6.59

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Dollar Tree Inc was 6.59. The lowest was -6.34. And the median was -2.73.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Dollar Tree Inc Annual Data

Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.58 -2.95 -2.89 6.59 -2.77

Dollar Tree Inc Quarterly Data

Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.89 -2.28 -2.77 -2.68 -2.68

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Dollar Tree Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 0.9667+0.404 * 1.0387+0.892 * 1.0399+0.115 * 1.0576
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.991+4.679 * -0.0604-0.327 * 0.8648
=-2.68

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Jul17) TTM:Last Year (Jul16) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 5281.2 + 5287.1 + 5635.5 + 5001.6 = $21,205 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1627.8 + 1627.1 + 1807.3 + 1520.5 = $6,583 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,815 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,532 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,115 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $619 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $4,792 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,085 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,595 Mil.
Net Income was 233.8 + 200.5 + 321.8 + 171.6 = $928 Mil.
Non-Recurring Items was -151.7 + -0.3 + 573.4 + -224.3 = $197 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 244.5 + 430.7 + 1018 + -25 = $1,668 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 4996.3 + 5085.8 + 5365.3 + 4945.2 = $20,393 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1512.4 + 1554.6 + 1652.6 + 1400 = $6,120 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,449 Mil.
Total Assets was $16,329 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,174 Mil.
(DDA) was $674 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $4,650 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,180 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $7,156 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 21205.4) / (0 / 20392.6)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(6119.6 / 20392.6) / (6582.7 / 21205.4)
=0.30008925 / 0.31042565
=0.9667

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3815.2 + 3115.4) / 15532.3) / (1 - (4449.4 + 3174.2) / 16329.4)
=0.55379435 / 0.53313655
=1.0387

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=21205.4 / 20392.6
=1.0399

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(674.2 / (674.2 + 3174.2)) / (618.5 / (618.5 + 3115.4))
=0.17518969 / 0.1656445
=1.0576

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of c in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(4792 / 21205.4) / (4650.2 / 20392.6)
=0.22598017 / 0.2280337
=0.991

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5595 + 2084.7) / 15532.3) / ((7155.7 + 2180) / 16329.4)
=0.49443418 / 0.57171115
=0.8648

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(927.7 - 197.1 - 1668.2) / 15532.3
=-0.0604

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Dollar Tree Inc has a M-score of -2.68 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


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