Fossil Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
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Fossil Group Annual Data
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Trend |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
Dec16 |
Dec17 |
Dec18 |
Dec19 |
Dec20 |
Dec21 |
Dec22 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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|
|
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-2.53 |
-2.66 |
-2.41 |
-2.43 |
-2.68 |
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Fossil Group Quarterly Data
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Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
Sep23 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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-2.43 |
-2.55 |
-2.71 |
-3.03 |
-2.68 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Luxury Goods subindustry, Fossil Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fossil Group Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Fossil Group Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Fossil Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.1226 | + | 0.528 * 1.0261 | + | 0.404 * 1.336 | + | 0.892 * 0.8395 | + | 0.115 * 1.0676 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 1.1239 | + | 4.679 * -0.058966 | - | 0.327 * 1.0979 |
| = | -2.68 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $245 Mil.
Revenue was 421.261 + 344.121 + 321.966 + 325.036 = $1,412 Mil.
Gross Profit was 200.534 + 161.663 + 156.667 + 160.717 = $680 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $711 Mil.
Total Assets was $978 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $208 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $19 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $777 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $342 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $345 Mil.
Net Income was -28.235 + -61.062 + -26.529 + -41.262 = $-157 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -18.2 + -19.718 + 2.379 + -4.419 = $-40 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 48.503 + -24.914 + 2.814 + -85.862 = $-59 Mil.
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Total Receivables was $260 Mil.
Revenue was 499.147 + 436.271 + 371.168 + 375.853 = $1,682 Mil.
Gross Profit was 235.397 + 219.62 + 191.349 + 184.313 = $831 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $945 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,238 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $237 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $23 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $824 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $426 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $366 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (245.257 / 1412.384) | / | (260.239 / 1682.439) |
| = | 0.173648 | / | 0.15468 |
| | = | 1.1226 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (830.679 / 1682.439) | / | (679.581 / 1412.384) |
| = | 0.493735 | / | 0.481159 |
| | = | 1.0261 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (710.69 + 208.244) / 978.03) | / | (1 - (945.3 + 236.829) / 1238.128) |
| = | 0.060424 | / | 0.045229 |
| | = | 1.336 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 1412.384 | / | 1682.439 |
| | = | 0.8395 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (23.333 / (23.333 + 236.829)) | / | (19.099 / (19.099 + 208.244)) |
| = | 0.089686 | / | 0.08401 |
| | = | 1.0676 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (777.167 / 1412.384) | / | (823.689 / 1682.439) |
| = | 0.550252 | / | 0.48958 |
| | = | 1.1239 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((344.627 + 342.477) / 978.03) | / | ((366.32 + 425.92) / 1238.128) |
| = | 0.702539 | / | 0.639869 |
| | = | 1.0979 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (-157.088 - -39.958 | - | -59.459) | / | 978.03 |
| | = | -0.058966 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Fossil Group has a M-score of -2.68 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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