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Royal Caribbean Group (FRA:RC8) Beneish M-Score

: -2.99 (As of Today)
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.99 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Royal Caribbean Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:RC8' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.99   Med: -2.69   Max: -1.34
Current: -2.99

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Royal Caribbean Group was -1.34. The lowest was -2.99. And the median was -2.69.


Royal Caribbean Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Royal Caribbean Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Royal Caribbean Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.88 -2.06 -2.78 -1.34 -2.99

Royal Caribbean Group Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.34 -1.96 -2.68 -2.95 -2.99

Competitive Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Royal Caribbean Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Royal Caribbean Group Beneish M-Score Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Royal Caribbean Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Royal Caribbean Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Royal Caribbean Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Royal Caribbean Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.4887+0.528 * 0.5794+0.404 * 1.0105+0.892 * 1.5161+0.115 * 1.0525
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.728+4.679 * -0.085339-0.327 * 0.9408
=-3.03

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was €371 Mil.
Revenue was 3054.911 + 3898.344 + 3251.712 + 2694.726 = €12,900 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1321.452 + 1896.107 + 1447.362 + 1020.153 = €5,685 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €1,643 Mil.
Total Assets was €32,215 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €28,175 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,350 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,662 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €8,621 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €18,656 Mil.
Net Income was 254.076 + 945.504 + 423.436 + -44.748 = €1,578 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 47.284 + 73.763 + 33.808 + 23.402 = €178 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1023.367 + 618.176 + 1284.213 + 1223.463 = €4,149 Mil.
Total Receivables was €501 Mil.
Revenue was 2457.659 + 3023.006 + 2066.293 + 961.782 = €8,509 Mil.
Gross Profit was 772.911 + 1036.892 + 477.09 + -114.146 = €2,173 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €3,026 Mil.
Total Assets was €31,885 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €26,511 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,340 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,506 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €8,093 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €20,604 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(371.385 / 12899.693) / (501.264 / 8508.74)
=0.02879 / 0.058912
=0.4887

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2172.747 / 8508.74) / (5685.074 / 12899.693)
=0.255355 / 0.440714
=0.5794

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1643.264 + 28174.825) / 32215.127) / (1 - (3025.52 + 26511.296) / 31884.544)
=0.074407 / 0.073632
=1.0105

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=12899.693 / 8508.74
=1.5161

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1340.126 / (1340.126 + 26511.296)) / (1349.831 / (1349.831 + 28174.825))
=0.048117 / 0.045719
=1.0525

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1661.569 / 12899.693) / (1505.535 / 8508.74)
=0.128807 / 0.17694
=0.728

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((18656.365 + 8620.717) / 32215.127) / ((20603.744 + 8092.912) / 31884.544)
=0.846717 / 0.900018
=0.9408

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1578.268 - 178.257 - 4149.219) / 32215.127
=-0.085339

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Royal Caribbean Group has a M-score of -3.03 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Royal Caribbean Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Royal Caribbean Group (FRA:RC8) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1050 Caribbean Way, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Royal Caribbean is the world's second-largest cruise company, operating 64 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry, with 10 more ships on order. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. The selection of brands in the portfolio allows Royal to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.

Royal Caribbean Group (FRA:RC8) Headlines

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