Forward Air Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Forward Air's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
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Forward Air Annual Data
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Trend |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
Dec16 |
Dec17 |
Dec18 |
Dec19 |
Dec20 |
Dec21 |
Dec22 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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|
|
|
|
|
-3.19 |
-2.59 |
-2.37 |
-2.87 |
-2.71 |
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Forward Air Quarterly Data
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Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
Sep23 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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-2.87 |
-2.94 |
-3.25 |
-3.14 |
-2.71 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, Forward Air's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Forward Air Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Forward Air's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Forward Air's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Forward Air Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Forward Air for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.033 | + | 0.528 * 1.2153 | + | 0.404 * 1.7432 | + | 0.892 * 0.8161 | + | 0.115 * 0.7537 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 1.2939 | + | 4.679 * -0.004711 | - | 0.327 * 2.2412 |
| = | -2.71 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $159 Mil.
Revenue was 128.04 + 413.447 + 402.182 + 427.066 = $1,371 Mil.
Gross Profit was 36.171 + 90.437 + 87.882 + 115.662 = $330 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $347 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,980 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $370 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $57 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $50 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $237 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,889 Mil.
Net Income was 101.744 + 9.288 + 19.951 + 36.368 = $167 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 21.957 + 29.865 + 63.573 + 65.993 = $181 Mil.
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Total Receivables was $188 Mil.
Revenue was 187.431 + 510.023 + 515.219 + 466.961 = $1,680 Mil.
Gross Profit was 83.346 + 145.936 + 146.003 + 116.38 = $492 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $304 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,208 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $377 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $43 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $47 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $169 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $215 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (158.675 / 1370.735) | / | (188.229 / 1679.634) |
| = | 0.115759 | / | 0.112065 |
| | = | 1.033 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (491.665 / 1679.634) | / | (330.152 / 1370.735) |
| = | 0.292722 | / | 0.240858 |
| | = | 1.2153 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (347.028 + 369.647) / 2979.533) | / | (1 - (304.315 + 377.426) / 1208.076) |
| = | 0.759467 | / | 0.43568 |
| | = | 1.7432 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 1370.735 | / | 1679.634 |
| | = | 0.8161 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (42.552 / (42.552 + 377.426)) | / | (57.405 / (57.405 + 369.647)) |
| = | 0.10132 | / | 0.134422 |
| | = | 0.7537 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (50.133 / 1370.735) | / | (47.478 / 1679.634) |
| = | 0.036574 | / | 0.028267 |
| | = | 1.2939 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((1888.834 + 237.094) / 2979.533) | / | ((215.202 + 169.398) / 1208.076) |
| = | 0.71351 | / | 0.318357 |
| | = | 2.2412 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (167.351 - 0 | - | 181.388) | / | 2979.533 |
| | = | -0.004711 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Forward Air has a M-score of -2.71 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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