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Harley-Davidson Inc  (NYSE:HOG) Beneish M-Score: -2.80 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Harley-Davidson Inc has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NYSE:HOG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.62   Max: -0.86
Current: -2.8

-3.62
-0.86

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Harley-Davidson Inc was -0.86. The lowest was -3.62. And the median was -2.57.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.51 -2.46 -2.69 -2.72 -2.55

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.47 -2.55 -2.69 -2.74 -2.80

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Harley-Davidson Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2414+0.528 * 0.9244+0.404 * 1.2371+0.892 * 0.7984+0.115 * 0.1808
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1294+4.679 * -0.0633-0.327 * 1.0254
=-2.80

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep17) TTM:Last Year (Sep16) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $343 Mil.
Revenue was 466.034 + 1765.169 + 1501.932 + 1110.6 = $4,844 Mil.
Gross Profit was 354.035 + 719.249 + 607.417 + 422.017 = $2,103 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,788 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,088 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $163 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,134 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,216 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $4,608 Mil.
Net Income was 68.209 + 258.867 + 186.369 + 47.179 = $561 Mil.
Non-Recurring Items was 1.083 + 0.577 + 0.879 + 0.891 = $3 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 322.007 + 467.129 + 159.939 + 246.53 = $1,196 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $346 Mil.
Revenue was 1274.813 + 1861.077 + 1749.968 + 1180.635 = $6,066 Mil.
Gross Profit was 507.629 + 755.627 + 717.719 + 453.452 = $2,434 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,102 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,212 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $954 Mil.
(DDA) was $211 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,258 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,554 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,171 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(343.124 / 4843.735) / (346.176 / 6066.493)
=0.07083872 / 0.05706361
=1.2414

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2434.427 / 6066.493) / (2102.718 / 4843.735)
=0.40129066 / 0.43411087
=0.9244

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3788.142 + 0) / 10088.359) / (1 - (4102.344 + 954.475) / 10212.226)
=0.62450365 / 0.50482696
=1.2371

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4843.735 / 6066.493
=0.7984

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(210.615 / (210.615 + 954.475)) / (162.568 / (162.568 + 0))
=0.18077144 / 1
=0.1808

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of c in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1134.244 / 4843.735) / (1257.859 / 6066.493)
=0.23416723 / 0.20734533
=1.1294

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4607.791 + 3216.351) / 10088.359) / ((5170.609 + 2553.707) / 10212.226)
=0.77556142 / 0.75637927
=1.0254

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(560.624 - 3.43 - 1195.605) / 10088.359
=-0.0633

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Harley-Davidson Inc has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.

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