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GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with Johnson Outdoors Inc $JOUT.
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Johnson Outdoors Inc (NAS:JOUT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.38 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Johnson Outdoors Inc has a M-score of -2.38 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

JOUT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.12   Max: -1.58
Current: -2.38

-5.12
-1.58

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Johnson Outdoors Inc was -1.58. The lowest was -5.12. And the median was -2.56.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Johnson Outdoors Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1602+0.528 * 0.9782+0.404 * 1.0825+0.892 * 1.0263+0.115 * 0.9822
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9857+4.679 * -0.0364-0.327 * 0.7715
=-2.38

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Mar17) TTM:Last Year (Mar16) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $122.4 Mil.
Revenue was 149.807 + 93.729 + 74.937 + 139.3 = $457.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 64.913 + 36.565 + 28.885 + 59.283 = $189.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $230.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $342.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $48.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.5 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $134.3 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $86.8 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $5.0 Mil.
Net Income was 13.959 + 4.056 + -2.127 + 6.841 = $22.7 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 1.494 + -0.054 + 0.655 + 0.371 = $2.5 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -11.884 + -34.326 + 16.501 + 62.428 = $32.7 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $102.8 Mil.
Revenue was 134.192 + 85.298 + 85.673 + 140.883 = $446.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 54.995 + 33.299 + 33.711 + 58.752 = $180.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $248.1 Mil.
Total Assets was $354.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $45.9 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $132.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $86.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $37.2 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(122.386 / 457.773) / (102.786 / 446.046)
=0.26735085 / 0.23043812
=1.1602

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(180.757 / 446.046) / (189.646 / 457.773)
=0.40524296 / 0.41427957
=0.9782

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (230.611 + 48.13) / 342.302) / (1 - (248.066 + 45.862) / 354.789)
=0.18568691 / 0.1715414
=1.0825

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=457.773 / 446.046
=1.0263

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(11.681 / (11.681 + 45.862)) / (12.539 / (12.539 + 48.13))
=0.20299602 / 0.20667886
=0.9822

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(134.301 / 457.773) / (132.758 / 446.046)
=0.29337903 / 0.29763298
=0.9857

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5 + 86.775) / 342.302) / ((37.172 + 86.128) / 354.789)
=0.2681112 / 0.3475305
=0.7715

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(22.729 - 2.466 - 32.719) / 342.302
=-0.0364

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Johnson Outdoors Inc has a M-score of -2.38 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Johnson Outdoors Inc Annual Data

Sep07Sep08Sep09Sep10Sep11Sep12Sep13Sep14Sep15Sep16
DSRI 0.99160.94180.97311.00670.94430.85141.04831.01040.99590.92
GMI 1.02941.07491.01810.92781.00261.00460.99371.01190.99360.9805
AQI 1.02460.4221.58960.88491.27050.90671.17130.79691.18381.0362
SGI 1.0930.97720.84731.07271.06531.0121.03440.99751.01191.0075
DEPI 1.09531.00280.78141.18750.95410.96641.30340.97110.92041.0556
SGAI 1.00321.0560.99560.96380.9770.9960.95530.97831.06930.9314
LVGI 1.01591.3260.80870.98790.81590.86570.96680.94991.09230.9397
TATA 0.0262-0.2941-0.1888-0.05660.0152-0.0844-0.0379-0.0885-0.0205-0.101
M-score -2.25-4.24-3.24-2.73-2.23-3.00-2.46-2.95-2.55-2.98

Johnson Outdoors Inc Quarterly Data

Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16Mar17
DSRI 0.91161.08430.96780.99591.08160.88580.85750.921.10221.1602
GMI 1.00410.99370.97690.99360.99660.97960.98160.98050.98250.9782
AQI 0.94440.80451.19191.18381.10791.32890.95011.03621.03751.0825
SGI 0.99721.03781.02851.01191.06671.04711.03431.00750.99371.0263
DEPI 0.9110.89210.88170.92040.96470.99361.06791.05561.02910.9822
SGAI 0.98711.02821.07731.06931.00130.93910.89110.93140.95520.9857
LVGI 0.97041.05931.11571.09231.03310.90490.93690.93970.81540.7715
TATA -0.102-0.0447-0.0503-0.0205-0.0033-0.0548-0.0912-0.101-0.0801-0.0364
M-score -3.06-2.70-2.72-2.55-2.33-2.64-2.99-2.98-2.69-2.38
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