Market Cap : 1.49 B | Enterprise Value : 2.01 B | P/E (TTM) : 24.56 | P/B : 2.08 |
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.93 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of ICF International was -0.67. The lowest was -3.06. And the median was -2.62.
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.
* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of ICF International for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.8494 | + | 0.528 * 0.9945 | + | 0.404 * 1.1461 | + | 0.892 * 1.0064 | + | 0.115 * 0.9424 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 1.0197 | + | 4.679 * -0.074 | - | 0.327 * 1.0415 | |||||||
= | -2.93 |
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.
This Year (Sep20) TTM: | Last Year (Sep19) TTM: |
Accounts Receivable was $230 Mil. Revenue was 360.315 + 353.987 + 358.238 + 396.636 = $1,469 Mil. Gross Profit was 137.027 + 130.58 + 127.622 + 132.609 = $528 Mil. Total Current Assets was $411 Mil. Total Assets was $1,607 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $201 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $32 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $400 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $306 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $486 Mil. Net Income was 17.871 + 13.656 + 10.612 + 19.379 = $62 Mil. Non Operating Income was -0.223 + 0.349 + 0.19 + -0.134 = $0 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 84.37 + 26.033 + -15.232 + 85.076 = $180 Mil. |
Accounts Receivable was $269 Mil. Revenue was 373.918 + 366.717 + 341.254 + 377.91 = $1,460 Mil. Gross Profit was 135.76 + 131.664 + 125.305 + 128.853 = $522 Mil. Total Current Assets was $457 Mil. Total Assets was $1,420 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $195 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $29 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $390 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $302 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $370 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (230.277 / 1469.176) | / | (269.368 / 1459.799) | |
= | 0.15673888 | / | 0.18452403 | |
= | 0.8494 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (521.582 / 1459.799) | / | (527.838 / 1469.176) | |
= | 0.35729713 | / | 0.35927486 | |
= | 0.9945 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (410.579 + 200.602) / 1607.471) | / | (1 - (456.955 + 195.345) / 1420.416) | |
= | 0.61978723 | / | 0.54076834 | |
= | 1.1461 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 1469.176 | / | 1459.799 | |
= | 1.0064 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (28.988 / (28.988 + 195.345)) | / | (31.876 / (31.876 + 200.602)) | |
= | 0.12921862 | / | 0.13711405 | |
= | 0.9424 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (400.313 / 1469.176) | / | (390.057 / 1459.799) | |
= | 0.2724745 | / | 0.26719911 | |
= | 1.0197 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((486.254 + 305.747) / 1607.471) | / | ((369.864 + 302.082) / 1420.416) | |
= | 0.49270002 | / | 0.47306282 | |
= | 1.0415 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (61.518 - 0.182 | - | 180.247) | / | 1607.471 | |
= | -0.074 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
ICF International has a M-score of -2.93 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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