Webster Financial Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Webster Financial for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.9252 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 1.1234 | + | 0.892 * 1.0724 | + | 0.115 * 1.0541 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 1.0657 | + | 4.679 * -0.001479 | - | 0.327 * 0.5948 |
| = | -2.31 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $3,198 Mil.
Revenue was 634.836 + 677.518 + 673.203 + 666.049 = $2,652 Mil.
Gross Profit was 634.836 + 677.518 + 673.203 + 666.049 = $2,652 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,951 Mil.
Total Assets was $74,945 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $430 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $78 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $785 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,604 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $3,409 Mil.
Net Income was 185.393 + 226.475 + 234.968 + 221.004 = $868 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 87.815 + 427.172 + 249.368 + 214.294 = $979 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was $3,223 Mil.
Revenue was 704.554 + 662.091 + 607.593 + 498.283 = $2,473 Mil.
Gross Profit was 704.554 + 662.091 + 607.593 + 498.283 = $2,473 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $11,956 Mil.
Total Assets was $71,278 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $430 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $83 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $687 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,481 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $6,534 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (3198.241 / 2651.606) | / | (3223.487 / 2472.521) |
| = | 1.206152 | / | 1.303725 |
| | = | 0.9252 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (2472.521 / 2472.521) | / | (2651.606 / 2651.606) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (4950.994 + 429.561) / 74945.249) | / | (1 - (11956.127 + 430.184) / 71277.521) |
| = | 0.928207 | / | 0.826224 |
| | = | 1.1234 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 2651.606 | / | 2472.521 |
| | = | 1.0724 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (82.67 / (82.67 + 430.184)) | / | (77.553 / (77.553 + 429.561)) |
| = | 0.161196 | / | 0.15293 |
| | = | 1.0541 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (785.455 / 2651.606) | / | (687.266 / 2472.521) |
| = | 0.296219 | / | 0.277962 |
| | = | 1.0657 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((3408.838 + 1603.744) / 74945.249) | / | ((6533.68 + 1481.485) / 71277.521) |
| = | 0.066883 | / | 0.11245 |
| | = | 0.5948 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (867.84 - 0 | - | 978.649) | / | 74945.249 |
| | = | -0.001479 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Webster Financial has a M-score of -2.31 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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