Forrester Research (NAS:FORR) PE Ratio

The PE Ratio can be viewed as the number of years it takes for the company to earn back the price you pay for the stock. For example, if a company earns $2 a share per year, and the stock is traded at $30, the PE Ratio is 15. Therefore it takes 15 years for the company to earn back the $30 you paid for its stock, assuming the earnings stays constant over the next 15 years.

In real business, earnings never stay constant. If a company can grow its earnings, it takes fewer years for the company to earn back the price you pay for the stock. If a company's earnings decline it takes more years. As a shareholder, you want the company to earn back the price you pay as soon as possible. Therefore, lower P/E stocks are more attractive than higher P/E stocks so long as the PE Ratio is positive. Also for stocks with the same PE Ratio, the one with faster growth business is more attractive.

If a company loses money, the PE Ratio becomes meaningless.

To compare stocks with different growth rates, Peter Lynch invented a ratio called PEG Ratio. PEG Ratio is defined as the PE Ratio divided by the growth ratio. He thinks a company with a PE Ratio equal to its growth rate is fairly valued. Still he said he would rather buy a company growing 20% a year with a PE Ratio of 20, instead of a company growing 10% a year with a PE Ratio of 10.

Because the PE Ratio measures how long it takes to earn back the price you pay, the PE Ratio can be applied to the stocks across different industries. That is why it is the one of the most important and widely used indicators for the valuation of stocks.

Similar to the PE Ratio without NRI or PS Ratio or Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow or Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow , the PE Ratio measures the valuation based on the earning power of the company. This is where it is different from the PB Ratio , which measures the valuation based on the company's balance sheet.

Be Aware

Investors need to be aware that the PE Ratio can be misleading a lot of times, especially when the underlying business is cyclical and unpredictable. As Peter Lynch pointed out, cyclical businesses have higher profit margins at the peaks of the business cycles. Their earnings are high and PE Ratios are artificially low. It is usually a bad idea to buy a cyclical business when the PE Ratio is low. A better ratio to identify the time to buy a cyclical businesses is the PS Ratio.

PE Ratio can also be affected by non-recurring-items such as the sale of part of businesses. This may increase for the current year or quarter dramatically. But it cannot be repeated over and over. Therefore PE Ratio without NRI is a more accurate indication of valuation than PE Ratio.

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