APGB.U (Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II) Predictability Rank

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What is Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II (NYSE:APGB.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 West 57th Street, 42rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.apollostrategicgrowthcapitalii.com

Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II is a blank check company.

Executives

Public Sector Pension Investment Board	10 percent owner	1250 RENE-LEVESQUE BLVD WEST, SUITE 1400, MONTREAL A8 H3B 5E9
Apollo Principal Holdings Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST CORPORATE SERVICES, (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 190 ELGIN STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9005
Apollo Principal Holdings Iii Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST CORPORATE SERVICES, (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 190 ELGIN STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9005
Angela Sun	director	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80236
Scott Kleinman	director	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT L P, 1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICANS 38TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10018
Nathaniel Lipman	director	6 HIGH RIDGE PARK, STAMFORD CT 06905
Melvin Parker	director	2424 GARDEN OF THE GODS RD, SUITE 300, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80919
James Crossen	officer: CFO, CAO & Secretary	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apsg Sponsor Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sanjay H Patel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ap Caps Ii Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD., GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008

Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II Headlines

From GuruFocus

Apollo Strategic Growth Capital II Will Redeem Its Public Shares and Will Not Consummate an Initial Business Combination

By GlobeNewswire • 11-11-2023