What is First Financial Northwest Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First Financial Northwest Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First Financial Northwest Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
201 Wells Avenue South, PO Box 360, Renton, WA, USA, 98057
First Financial Northwest Inc is the holding company. The Bank's business consists predominantly of attracting deposits from the general public, combined with borrowing from the FHLB of Des Moines and raising funds in the wholesale market then utilizing these funds to originate one-to-four family residential, multifamily, commercial real estate, construction/land, business, and consumer loans. The Bank's strategic initiatives seek to diversify its loan portfolio and broaden growth opportunities with its current risk tolerance levels and asset/liability objectives.
Executives
| Simon Soh |
officer: Chief Lending Officer FSBNW |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Richard P Jacobson |
officer: COO of the Bank |
|
| Kiley Joseph W Iii |
director, officer: President and CEO of the Bank |
IMPERIAL CAPITAL BANCORP INC, 888 PROSPECT STREET SUITE 110, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Cindy L. Runger |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Christine A. Huestis |
officer: 1st VP/Prin. Acct Officer |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Richard M Riccobono |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Ralph C Sabin |
director |
C/O PACIFIC VENTURE GROUP, 114 PACIFICA STREET, SUITE 270, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Diane C. Davis |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Kevin D Padrick |
director |
2055 FIRST STREET, BAKER CITY OR 97814 |
| Patricia M. Remch |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Randy T. Riffle |
officer: Executive VP and CCO |
105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362 |
| Gary F Faull |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Joann E Lee |
director |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Ronnie J Clariza |
officer: Sr.VP/Chief Risk Officer |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
| Gregg H. Deritis |
officer: Senior VP and CCO |
201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057 |
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