GRTX (Galera Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Galera Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Galera Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Galera Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Galera Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:GRTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

P.O. Box 134, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355

Website

https://www.galeratx.com

Galera Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing a pipeline of novel, proprietary therapeutics that have the potential to transform radiotherapy in cancer. The Firm's lead product candidate, avasopasem manganese, is a highly selective small molecule dismutase mimetic for severe oral mucositis (SOM) in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC), the reduction of esophagitis in patients with lung cancer, and the reduction of cisplatin-induced kidney damage in patients with cancer. The Firm's second product candidate, rucosopasem manganese, has been in development to augment the anti-cancer efficacy of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC).

Executives

Mel Sorensen	director, officer: President and CEO	7 RAPPS RUN DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Mark Bachleda	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O GALERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 W LIBERTY BOULEVARD, #110, MALVERN PA 19355
Chris Degnan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERRICA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 10 NORTH HIGH STREET, SUITE 200, WEST CHESTER PA 19380
Eugene P. Kennedy	officer: Chief Medical Officer	2503 SOUTH LOOP DRIVE, AMES IA 50010
Linda West	director	C/O GALERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 W LIBERTY BLVD., #110, MALVERN PA 19355
Jennifer Evans Stacey	officer: See Remarks	AUXILIUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 160 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, NORRISTOWN PA 19401
Jon T Holmlund	officer: Chief Medical Officer
Lawrence M Alleva	director	1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner, other: SEE REMARKS	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Joel F. Sussman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O GALERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 W LIBERTY BLVD. #110, MALVERN PA 19355
Novartis Bioventures Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O NOVARTIS INTERNATIONAL AG, WSJ-200.220, CH-4002 BASEL V8 0000000000
New Enterprise Associates 14, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Sofinnova Venture Partners Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Blackstone Clarus Gp L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Clarus Iv-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142