1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Advance Auto Parts Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Advance Auto Parts (Advance Auto Parts) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4200 Six Forks Road, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27609
Advance Auto Parts is one of the industry's largest retailers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories to do-it-yourself customers and third-party vehicle repair facilities in North America. Advance operated 5,086 stores as of the end of 2022, in addition to servicing 1,311 independently owned Carquest stores. The company's Worldpac chain is a premier distributor of imported original-equipment parts. Advance derived 59% of its 2022 sales from commercial clients, with the remainder from DIY shoppers.
Executives
| Kristen L Soler |
officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer |
12200 FOX VALLEY STREET, RALEIGH NC 27614 |
| Lee Eugene I Jr |
director |
1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
| Shane M Okelly |
director, officer: Director, President and CEO |
4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Anthony A Iskander |
officer: Interim CFO, SVP, Fin & Treas |
4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Douglas A Pertz |
director |
1801 BAYBERRY COURT, RICHMOND VA 23226 |
| Joan M Hilson |
director |
150 THORN HILL DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086-7528 |
| John Francis Ferraro |
director |
9 WALNUT AVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140 |
| Carla Jean Bailo |
director |
1775 SHERMAN STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80203 |
| Jones Jeffrey J Ii |
director |
ONE H&R BLOCK WAY, KANSAS CITY MO 64105 |
| Szilagyi J Stephen |
officer: EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer |
15027 JUNE WASHAM ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Word Herman L Jr |
officer: EVP, U.S. Stores & CQ Ind. |
1033 LINENHALL WAY, WAKE FOREST NC 27587 |
| Pellicciotti William J Jr |
officer: SVP, Controller and CAO |
4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Robert B Cushing |
officer: EVP, Commercial |
1432 FREEMAN LANE, PLEASANTON VA 94566 |
| Sherice Torres |
director |
PO BOX 20833, SAN JOSE CA 95160 |
| Natalie Schechtman |
officer: SVP Human Resources |
45 ROUND HOUSE ROAD, BEDFORD NY 10506 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
AAP has been successfully added to your