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Actions Semiconductor Co (Actions Semiconductor Co) Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Actions Semiconductor Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Actions Semiconductor Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Actions Semiconductor Co (Actions Semiconductor Co) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Actions Semiconductor Co Ltd an exempted company incorporated under the Companies Law (2013 Revision), as amended, of the Cayman Islands on July 27, 2005. The Company is a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops and markets integrated platform solutions, including SoCs, firmware, software development tools and reference designs, for manufacturers of portable media players and smart handheld devices such as tablets. It provides integrated platform solutions to tablet and portable media player manufacturers, brand owners and value-added distributors that enable them to accelerate the time-to-market for their products. Its integrated platform solutions, which comprise SoCs, firmware, software development tools and reference designs, obviate the need for its customers to invest in costly and time-consuming internal firmware and software development for their products, or to source them from multiple suppliers. The Company's network of third-party value-added distributors and applications developers enable its customers to quickly introduce products with differentiated features and to cost-effectively customize its solutions. Its mixed-signal design capabilities allows it to integrate analog and digital components using a compact system architecture in its portable media player SoCs, and enable its customers to reduce their overall costs and produce smaller, more power-efficient portable products. The Company's proximity to the China-based manufacturers of tablets and portable media players and presence in the rapidly evolving China market for tablets and portable media players enables the Company to identify market trends and align its product development efforts with these market trends. The Company's research and development efforts during 2011, 2012 and 2013 focused principally on: (i) the development of tablets solutions and applications including ATM7029, ATM7021 and ATM7039, (ii) the improvement of traditional portable media player and boombox solutions including ATJ331X/AK211X/ATJ212X series, ATJ225X/ATJ227X series and ATS25XX/ATS26XX series. The Company faces competition from SoC platform providers such as ALi, AllWinner, Amlogic, Anyka, BestRely, Buildwin, Freescale, General Plus, Infotmic, Ingenic, Intel, JieLI, MVSilicon, Rockchips, Vmicro and WonderMedia. As it diversifies and expands its product categories, it may also face competition from other semiconductor companies and manufacturers of consumer electronics and mobile devices.
Executives
Paul Hsiao director 1119 ST PAUL STREET BALTIMORE MD 21202

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