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Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Aflac Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Aflac Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Aflac's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Business Description

Aflac logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1932 Wynnton Road, Columbus, GA, USA, 31999
Aflac Inc offers supplemental health insurance and life insurance in the two largest insurance markets in the world, the U.S. and Japan. In addition to its cancer policies, the company has broadened its product offerings to include accidents, disability, and long-term-care insurance. It markets its products through independent distributors, selling most of its policies directly to consumers at their places of work.
Executives
Virgil Raynard Miller officer: President, Aflac U.S. 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Bradley Eugene Dyslin officer: Executive Vice President 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Arthur Reginald Collins director 3911 LORCOM LANE, ARLINGTON VA 22207
Nobuchika Mori director 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Georgette D. Kiser director 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Steven Kent Beaver officer: SVP, CFO, Aflac US 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Richard Jr Williams officer: Executive V.P. 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Albert Riggieri officer: SVP, Corporate Actuary 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Katherine Rohrer director 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Masatoshi Koide officer: Deputy President, Aflac Japan 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Max Broden officer: Senior Vice President 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Karole Lloyd director 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Toshihiko Fukuzawa director 1932 WYNNTON RD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
James Todd Daniels officer: Sr. Vice President 1932 WYNNTON ROAD, COLUMBUS GA 31999
Frederick John Crawford officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer AFLAC INCORPORATED, COLUMBUS GA 31999

Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Headlines

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