AMETEK (AMETEK) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AMETEK Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AMETEK (AMETEK) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » AMETEK Inc (NYSE:AME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AME:Mexico AK1:Germany AK1:Germany A1ME34:Brazil

Address

1100 Cassatt Road, Berwyn, PA, USA, 19312-1177

Website

https://www.ametek.com

Ametek is a diversified industrial conglomerate with over $6 billion in sales. The firm operates through an electronic instruments group and an electromechanical group. EIG designs and manufactures differentiated and advanced instruments for the process, aerospace, power, and industrial end markets. EMG is a focused, niche supplier of highly engineered automation solutions, thermal management systems, specialty metals, and electrical interconnects, among other products. About half of the firm's sales are made in the United States. The firm's asset-light strategy in place for nearly two decades emphasizes growth through acquisitions, new product development through research and development, driving operational efficiencies, and global and market expansion.

Executives

David A Zapico	officer: Pres. - Electronic Instruments	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Steven W Kohlhagen	director	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
William Joseph Burke	officer: SR. VP-Comptroller & Treasurer	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Emanuela Speranza	officer: CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER	1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Anthony James Conti	director	76 GOLFVIEW DRIVE, IVYLAND PA 18974
Thomas A Amato	director	38505 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 200, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Ronald J Oscher	officer: PRES. - ELECTRONIC INSTRUMENTS	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Gretchen W Mcclain	director	XYLEM INC., 1133 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, SUITE N200, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Thomas C Marecic	officer: PRES. - ELECTRONIC INSTRUMENTS	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Thomas M Montgomery	officer: SR. VP. - COMPTROLLER	AMETEK, INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
John Wesley Hardin	officer: PRES. - ELECTRONIC INSTRUMENTS	AMETEK,INC., 1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
David F. Hermance	officer: PRESIDENT - ELECTROMECHANICAL	1100 CASSATT ROAD, BERWYN PA 19312
Suzanne Stefany	director	JELD-WEN HOLDING, INC., 440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 400, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Dean Seavers	director	70 SUFFOLK ROAD, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467
Ruby R Chandy	director	630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 400, NORTHBROOK IL 60062