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eMagin Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


eMagin Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

eMagin Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of eMagin's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


eMagin Business Description

eMagin logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334419 SIC : 3679
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
700 South Drive, Suite 201, Hopewell Junction, NY, USA, 12533
eMagin Corp designs, develop, manufactures, and markets organic light-emitting diode, or OLED miniature displays, OLED-on-silicon microdisplays, virtual imaging products that utilize OLED micro displays, and related products. The company's OLED displays are used in a variety of products, including military aviation helmets, military weapons sights & targeting systems, night vision & thermal imaging devices, training & simulation, visualization for ocular surgery, mobile ultrasound, and augmented reality applications. Its geographical segments are North & South America; Europe, Middle East, & Africa; and the Asia Pacific.
Executives
Cronson Paul C director C/O LARKSPUR CORP 445 PARK AVE NEW YORK NY 10022
Wittels Jill director 3006 NORTHUP WAY #103 BELLEVUE WA 98004
Richstone Ellen B director C/O SONUS NETWORKS, INC. 7 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE WESTFORD MA 01886
Seay Stephen director 10500 N.E. 8TH STREET, SUITE 1400 BELLEVUE WA 98004
Sculley Andrew George Jr officer: President/CEO 260 BRIAR DRIVE MARTINEZ CA 94553
Braddom Eric director C/O EMAGIN CORPORATION 2070 ROUTE 52 BLDG 334 HOPEWELL JUNCTION NY 12533
Koch Mark A officer: CFO C/O DEL GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES CORP. ONE COMMERCE PARK VALHALLA NY 10595
Awm Investment Company, Inc. 10 percent owner 527 MADISON AVENUE SUITE 2600 NEW YORK NY 10022
Brody Christopher Scott director STILLWATER LLC 655 MADISON AVE NEW YORK NY 10065
Costello Stephen officer: S V P Strategic Partnerships C/O EMAGIN CORPORATION 2070 ROUTE 52 BUILDING 334 HOPEWELL JUNCTION NY 12533
Polgar Leslie G director 3006 NORTHUP WAY SUITE 103 BELLEVUE WA 98004
Saltarelli Joseph other: Sr. VP of Manufacturing C/O EMAGIN CORPORATION 2070 ROUTE 52 BLDG 334 HOPEWELL JUNCTION NY 12533
Lucas Jeffrey P officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EMAGIN CORP. 2070 ROUTE 52 HOPEWELL JUNCTION NY 12533
Ghosh Amalkumar officer: Sr. VP, R&D 2070 ROUTE 52 HOPEWELL JUNCTION NY 12533
Olivier Prache officer: Sr. VP Product Development 213 MANVILLE ROAD PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570

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