AutoCanada (AutoCanada) Predictability Rank

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What is AutoCanada Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AutoCanada Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AutoCanada Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AutoCanada (AutoCanada) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » AutoCanada Inc (OTCPK:AOCIF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ACQ:Canada

Address

15511 123 Avenue NW, Suite 200, Edmonton, AB, CAN, T5V 0C3

Website

https://www.autocan.ca

AutoCanada Inc operates car dealerships in Canada. The company offers new and used vehicles, spare parts, maintenance services, and customer financing. AutoCanada retails brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, Audi, Volkswagen, BMW, Mini, Infiniti, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Fiat, Mitsubishi, and Subaru. The majority of revenue is generated in the new-vehicles sales segment.

AutoCanada (AutoCanada) Headlines

From GuruFocus

AutoCanada Announces Management and Board Changes

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 08-15-2018

AutoCanada Acquires Illinois Based Grossinger Auto Group

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 03-22-2018

AutoCanada commences litigation against Patrick Priestner and Canada One Auto Group

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 02-06-2019

AutoCanada Appoints Michael Rawluk as President

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 07-03-2018

AutoCanada Announces Executive Appointments

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 08-22-2018

AutoCanada Provides Operational Update in Response to COVID-19

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 03-25-2020

AutoCanada, Patrick Priestner and CanadaOne Auto Group Settle Outstanding Litigation

By PRNewswire • 09-08-2023

AutoCanada Acknowledges Receipt of Letter from Clearwater

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 06-12-2018