ARC Document Solutions (ARC Document Solutions) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ARC Document Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ARC Document Solutions (ARC Document Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » ARC Document Solutions Inc (NYSE:ARC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BK1:Germany

Address

12657 Alcosta Boulevard, Suite 200, San Ramon, CA, USA, 94583

Website

https://www.e-arc.com

ARC Document Solutions Inc is a global document solutions provider. The company's service offerings include managed print services (MPS), offsite services, archive and information management ( AIM), specialized color printing, Web-based document management applications, and equipment and supplies sales. Its product application involves in several industries such as the architectural, engineering, and construction. It principally engages in providing an onsite service to install a complete document solution platform in its customers' offices and project sites operate offsite service centers and enable its customers to store information and intellectual property in a cloud-based and searchable digital archive.

Executives

Rahul K Roy	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ARC DOCUMENT SOLUTIONS, INC., 12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Kumarakulasingam Suriyakumar	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O ARC DOCUMENT SOLUTIONS, INC., 12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Bradford L. Brooks	director	12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Tracey Luttrell	director	12657 ALCOSTA BLVD, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Mark W Mealy	director	301 S COLLEGE STREET, 4TH FL NC8905, CHARLOTTE NC 28288-8905
Cheryl Cook	director	12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Dennis Jeffery Grimes	officer: VP. Sr. Corp. Counsel & Secty	1981 N BROADWAY STE. 385, WALNUT CREEK CA 94596
Perez De La Mesa Manuel J	director
Dewitt Kerry Mccluggage	director	1177 PARK VIEW, PASADENA CA 91103
Thomas J Formolo	director	10 S WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 3175, CHICAGO IL 60606
John Freeland	director	ONE CAMPUS MARTIUS, DETROIT MI 48226
James F. Mcnulty	director	7825 PROSPECT PLACE, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Dilantha Wijesuriya	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ARC DOCUMENT SOLUTIONS, INC., 12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Jorge Avalos	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARC DOCUMENT SOLUTIONS, INC., 12657 ALCOSTA BLVD., SUITE 200, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Toth John E.d.	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4065 CESAR CHAVEZ STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94131