Astec Industries (Astec Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Astec Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Astec Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Astec Industries (Astec Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Astec Industries Inc (NAS:ASTE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AI2:Germany

Address

1725 Shepherd Road, Chattanooga, TN, USA, 37421

Website

https://www.astecindustries.com

Astec Industries Inc designs and manufactures equipment and components used primarily in road construction and other development activities. Its products are used through the entire process of building roads, from mining and crushing materials to creating the road surface. The company manufactures a line of plants, pavers, vehicles, and machines to mix and transform materials into construction components. It has two operating segments: infrastructure solutions and materials solutions. The majority of sales are derived from the United States. Its customers are asphalt producers, highway and heavy equipment contractors, ready mix concrete producers, demolition recycling markets, sand and gravel producers, open mine operators, quarry operators, and others.

Executives

Winford James Murphy Jr	director	213 NORMANDIE DRIVE, OPELOUSAS LA 70570
Barend Snyman	officer: Group President	3906 LOBLOLLY LANE, VALDOSTA GA 31601
Nalin Jain	director	30 ISABELLA ST., PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp	director	30 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Mark Joseph Gliebe	director	200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511
Linda I. Knoll	director	5800 KNOB HILL CR, CLARKSON TN 48348
Litchfield Matthew T Sr	officer: Chief Information Officer	1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Timothy A Averkamp	officer: Group President	1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Merwe Jaco Van Der	officer: Group President	1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Anshu Pasricha	officer: GC and Corp Secretary	1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Mary L Howell	director	1101 PENNSYLVANIA AVE STE 400, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tracey H Cook	director	1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
William Bradley Southern	director	1610 WEST END AVENUE, NASHVILLE TN 37203
James B Baker	director	1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
William Glenwood Dorey	director	PO BOX 50085, WATSONVILLE CA 95077-5085