Becton Dickinson (Becton Dickinson) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Becton Dickinson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Becton Dickinson (Becton Dickinson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Becton Dickinson & Co (NYSE:BDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BDX:Mexico 1BDX:Italy BOX:Germany BOX:Germany BOX:Germany B1DX34:Brazil

Address

1 Becton Drive, Franklin Lakes, NJ, USA, 07417-1880

Website

https://www.bd.com

Becton, Dickinson is the world's largest manufacturer and distributor of medical surgical products, such as needles, syringes, and sharps-disposal units. The company also manufactures pre-filled devices, diagnostic instruments and reagents, as well as flow cytometry and cell-imaging systems. BD Medical is nearly half of the total business, while BD Life Sciences (26% of estimated 2023 revenue) and BD Interventional (25%) account for the remainder. International revenue accounts for 43% of the company's business.

Executives

Michael David Garrison	officer: EVP and President Medical	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Richard Byrd	officer: EVP & President Interventional	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Claire Fraser	director	C/O BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07465
David Hickey	officer: EVP & President, Life Sciences	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Joanne Waldstreicher	director	C/O STRUCTURE THERAPEUTICS INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 223, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michelle Quinn	officer: EVP and Acting General Counsel	1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
David Shan	officer: EVP, Integrated Supply Chain	1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Roland Goette	officer: EVP and President, EMEA	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Christopher Delorefice	officer: EVP & CFO	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Polen Thomas E Jr	officer: Executive Vice President	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Samrat S. Khichi	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Rishi Grover	officer: EVP and Chief ISC Officer	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Pavan Kumar Mocherla	officer: EVP and President Greater Asia	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
James C Lim	officer: Executive Vice President	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Thomas J Spoerel	officer: VP Controller & Chief Acct Off	BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417