3 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Brown-Forman Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Brown-Forman (Brown-Forman) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
850 Dixie Highway, Louisville, KY, USA, 40210
Brown-Forman is a U.S.-based manufacturer of premium distilled spirits that generates close to 70% of revenues in the whiskey category, under well-known Tennessee whiskey brand Jack Daniel's and bourbon brands Woodford Reserve and Old Forester. It also manufactures and distributes tequila, vodka, rum, gin, and premium wines. The company generates 47% of sales from its home market, while the bulk of international revenues come from Europe, Australia, and Latin America. The Brown family controls over 50% of the economic interests and a 67% voting power of the company.
Executives
| Elizabeth M Brown |
director |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Elizabeth A Smith |
director |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Mark A. Clouse |
director |
C/O MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093 |
| Jeremy J Shepherd |
officer: VP, Pres, USA & Canada |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Crystal L Peterson |
officer: SVP, Chief Inclusion Officer |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Jan Singer |
director |
2 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Timothy M Nall |
officer: SVP CIO |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Leanne D Cunningham |
officer: SVP, Chief Fin Officer |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Matias Bentel |
officer: SVP, Chief Brands Officer |
850 DIXIE HWY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Kelli Nelson |
officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Mike J. Keyes |
officer: SVP, Chief Corporate Affairs |
850 DIXIE HWY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Tracy L Skeans |
director |
1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213 |
| John V. Hayes |
officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Michael Andrew Masick |
officer: VP DIR CORP STRATEGY |
850 DIXIE HIGHWAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40210 |
| Kathleen M. Gutmann |
director |
55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
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