BlackRock (BlackRock) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BlackRock Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BlackRock (BlackRock) Business Description

Industry

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Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BLK:Peru BLK:Mexico 1BLK:Italy BLQAd:UK BLQA:Germany BLQA:Germany BLQA:Germany BLQA:Germany BLAK34:Brazil BLK:Austria

Address

50 Hudson Yards, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.blackrock.com

BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world, with $9.101 trillion in AUM at the end of September 2023. Product mix is fairly diverse, with 52% of the firm's managed assets in equity strategies, 28% in fixed income, 9% in multi-asset class, 8% in money market funds, and 3% in alternatives. Passive strategies account for around two thirds of long-term AUM, with the company's ETF platform maintaining a leading market share domestically and on a global basis. Product distribution is weighted more toward institutional clients, which by our calculations account for around 80% of AUM. BlackRock is also geographically diverse, with clients in more than 100 countries and more than one third of managed assets coming from investors domiciled outside the U.S. and Canada.

Executives

Laurence Fink	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	BLACKROCK, INC., 50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Mark Wiedman	officer: Senior Managing Director	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Amin H. Nasser	director	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
J. Richard Kushel	officer: Senior Managing Director	BLACKROCK, INC., 50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Martin Small	officer: CFO & Senior Managing Director	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Marc D. Comerchero	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	BLACKROCK, INC., 50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Stephen Cohen	officer: Senior Managing Director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Caroline Heller	officer: Senior Managing Director	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Manish Mehta	officer: Senior Managing Director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Rachel Lord	officer: Senior Managing Director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Mark Mccombe	officer: Senior Managing Director	BLACKROCK, INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Robert Kapito	director, officer: President	100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
William E Ford	director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Kristin C Peck	director	C/O ZOETIS INC., 10 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Beth Ford	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012