Blend Labs (Blend Labs) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blend Labs Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blend Labs (Blend Labs) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Blend Labs Inc (NYSE:BLND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

415 Kearny Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94108

Website

https://www.blend.com

Blend Labs Inc is a cloud-based platform software platform that powers the digital interface between financial services firms and consumers. It supports and simplifies applications for mortgages, consumer loans, and deposit accounts. Its operating segments are 1) Blend Platform comprises a suite of products that power the entire origination process from back-end workflows to consumer experience. 2) Title365 enables customers to streamline the title, settlement, and closing process at scale for mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and home equity loans. The majority of revenue is earned from the blend platform segment.

Executives

Amir Jafari	officer: Head of Finance and Admin.	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Nima Ghamsari	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Oxana Tkach	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Winnie Ling	officer: Head of Legal	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Dean Klinger	officer: Head of Go-To-Market	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Crystal Sumner	officer: Head of Legal, Compliance,Risk	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Erin N Lantz	director	2343 42ND AVE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98112
Marc S. Greenberg	officer: Head of Finance	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Manish K. Gupta	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Timothy J Mayopoulos	director, officer: President	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Jonathan Y. Chan	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Ciara Burnham	director	3110 MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Ossa Investments Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18 TOWER 2, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Gerald C. Chen	director	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Erin James Collard	director	415 KEARNY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108