5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Boot Barn Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Boot Barn Holdings (Boot Barn Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
15345 Barranca Parkway, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618
Boot Barn Holdings Inc operates specialty retail stores. The company sells western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories in the United States. It is a single operating segment, which includes net sales generated from its retail stores and e-commerce websites.
Executives
| James M Watkins |
officer: CFO and Secretary |
4000 MACARTHUR BLVD., EAST TOWER, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
| James Grant Conroy |
director, officer: President and CEO |
15776 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Michael A Love |
officer: Senior Vice President Stores |
4 CENTAURUS WAY, COTO DE CAZA CA 92679 |
| Laurie Marie Grijalva |
officer: Chief Merchandising Officer |
15776 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| John Hazen |
officer: Chief Digital Officer |
14852 VANGUARD, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92647 |
| Gregory V. Hackman |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
15776 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Peter Starrett |
director |
|
| Chris Bruzzo |
director |
411 FIRST AVE., SOUTH, SUITE 700, SEATTLE WA 98104 |
| Anne Macdonald |
director |
200 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST PETERSBURG FL 33716 |
| Brenda I Morris |
director |
6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203 |
| Greg Bettinelli |
director |
4151 EAST 96TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240 |
| Gene Eddie Burt |
director |
19601 N 27TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85027 |
| Bradley Morgan Weston |
director |
7644 PEPITA WAY, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Lisa Laube |
director |
2233 LAKE PARK DRIVE, STE. 400, SMYRNA GA 30080 |
| Fs Equity Partners Vi, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
11100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
BOOT has been successfully added to your