Box (BOX) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Box Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Box (BOX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Box Inc (NYSE:BOX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3BX:Germany 3BX:Germany

Address

900 Jefferson Avenue, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.box.com

Box is a cloud-based content services platform that provides cloud-based storage and workflow collaboration services for enterprise customers. The firm was founded in 2005 as a file-sync and sharing provider. More recently, however, the company has focused on bolstering its product portfolio by adding tools such as governance and e-signature to enhance workflow management and collaboration.

Executives

Dylan C Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BOX INC, 4440 EL CAMINO REAL, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Eli Berkovitch	officer: VP Chief Acct Ofr & Controller	900 JEFFERSON AVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Aaron Levie	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BOX INC, 4440 EL CAMINO, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Jack R Lazar	director	400 W. CESAR CHAVEZ, ATTN: STOCK ADMINISTRATION, AUSTIN TX 78701
Dana L Evan	director	550 EAST TIMPANOGOS CIRCLE, *, OREM UT 84097
Daniel J Levin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & COO	4440 EL CAMINO REAL, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Amit Walia	director	2100 SEAPORT BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Kimberly Hammonds	director	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
John Ihn Park	director	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jeff Mannie	officer: VP Controller & Chief Acct Ofr	C/O BOX INC, 4440 EL CAMINO REAL, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Carl Bass	director	C/O AUTODESK INC, 111 MELNNIS PARKWAY, SAN RAFAEL CA 94903
Bethany Mayer	director	C/O IXIA, 26601 W. AGOURA ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Peter Leav	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Josh Stein	director	C/O DRAPER FISHER JURVETSON, 2882 SAND HILL ROAD SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Rory O'driscoll	director, 10 percent owner	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 700, FOSTER CITY CA 94404