BlueLinx Holdings (BlueLinx Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2004. Start your Free Trial

What is BlueLinx Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BlueLinx Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BlueLinx Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of BlueLinx Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

BlueLinx Holdings (BlueLinx Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » BlueLinx Holdings Inc (NYSE:BXC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FZG1:Germany

Address

1950 Spectrum Circle, Suite 300, Marietta, GA, USA, 30067

Website

https://www.bluelinxco.com

BlueLinx Holdings Inc is engaged in the wholesale distribution of residential and commercial building products. Its business products are split into two categories: Structural products include items such as lumber, plywood, oriented strand board, rebar, and remesh and Specialty products include items such as engineered wood, siding, millwork, outdoor living, specialty lumber and panels, and industrial products. The company's operations are carried out throughout the United States.

Executives

Kimberly Ann Debrock	officer: VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	3460 PRESTON RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 600, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Mitchell B Lewis	director, officer: President And CEO	4300 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Wamser R Andrew Jr	officer: SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O SCHWEITZER-MAUDUIT INTERNATIONAL, 100 NORTH POINT PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Anuj Dhanda	director	ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC., 250 PARKCENTER BOULEVARD, BOISE ID 83706
Keith Haas	director	1950 SPECTRUM CIRCLE, SUITE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067
Marietta Edmunds Zakas	director	1200 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Michael Wilson	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	1950 SPECTRUM CIRCLE, SUITE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067
Gibson Dwight Audley Konrad	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SPX FLOW, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Carol B Yancey	director	2999 CIRCLE 75 PKWY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Adam Bowen	officer: VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	1950 SPECTRUM CIRCLE, SUITE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067
Kevin A Henry	officer: CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, HARRIS BUILDING, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Dominic Dinapoli	director	500 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 1400, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Sean Dwyer	officer: See Remarks	1950 SPECTRUM CIRCLE, SUITE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067
Kim S Fennebresque	director	BLUELINX HOLDINGS INC, 4300 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Shyam K. Reddy	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	4300 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339