Cardinal Health (Cardinal Health) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cardinal Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cardinal Health (Cardinal Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Distribution » Cardinal Health Inc (NYSE:CAH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CAH:Mexico CLH:Germany CLH:Germany C1AH34:Brazil CAH:Argentina

Address

7000 Cardinal Place, Dublin, OH, USA, 43017

Website

https://www.cardinalhealth.com

Cardinal Health is one of three leading pharmaceutical wholesalers in the U.S., engaged in sourcing and distributing of branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to pharmacies (retail chains, independent, and mail order), hospitals networks, and healthcare providers. Along with Cencora and McKesson, the three comprise well over 90% of the U.S. pharmaceutical wholesale industry. Cardinal Health also supplies medical-surgical products and equipment to healthcare facilities in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Executives

Deborah Weitzman	officer: CEO, Pharmaceutical Segment	600 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 300, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Mary C. Scherer	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6026 LUDWIG STREET, POWELL OH 43065
Ola M Snow	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Stephen M Mason	officer: CEO, Medical Segment	7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Jessica L Mayer	officer: Chief Legal/Compliance Officer	7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Michelle D. Greene	officer: Chief Information Officer	1141 N. OLD WORLD 3RD STREET, UNIT # 2414, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Aaron E Alt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3001 COLORADO BLVD., DENTON TX 76210
Michelle Brennan	director	1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sujatha Chandrasekaran	director	77 HOT METAL STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Christine Mundkur	director
Steven Barg	director	ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia M English	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017
Sheri H. Edison	director	1069 STATE ROUTE 46 EAST, BATESVILLE IN 47006
Jason M. Hollar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
John H Weiland	director	C/O C.R BARD INC, 730 CENTRAL AVE, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974