Target Group (Target Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Target Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Target Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Target Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Target Group (Target Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Target Group Inc (OTCPK:CBDY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

20 Hempstead Drive, Hamilton, ON, CAN, L8W 2E7

Website

https://www.targetgroupinc.ca

Target Group Inc is engaged in the cultivation, processing, and distribution of curated cannabis products for the adult-use medical and recreational cannabis market in Canada. The company generates revenue from the sale of Wisp vaporizer and pod units.

Executives

Barry Alan Katzman	director	36 ADDISON DRIVE, ST. CATHERINES A6 L2S 4B7
Anthony Carlo Zarcone	director	564 NORTH SHORE BLVD., BURLINGTON A6 L7T 1X2
Frank Michael Monte	director	18 BRAESIDE SQ, MARKHAM A6 L3R 0A5
Saul Niddam	director	42 HEATHVIEW AVE, NORTH YORK A6 M2K 2C1
Azmatali Mehrali	officer: CFO	134 BRIDGEPOINTE COURT, AURORA A6 L4H 3H8
Alexander Starr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	1131A LESLIE STREET, SUITE 101, TORONTO A6 M3C 3L8
Rubin Schindermann	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	1131A LESLIE STREET, SUITE 101, TORONTO A6 M3C 3L8
Weinstein Family (2015) Trust	10 percent owner	52 RIDOUT STREET EAST, TILLSONBURG A6 N4G 2E3
Chess Supersite Inc. (canada)	10 percent owner	1131A LESLIE STREET, SUITE 101, TORONTO A6 M3C 3L8
Nava Starr	other: See Remarks	1131A LESLIE STREET, SUITE 101, TORONTO A6 M3C 3L8
James M Cassidy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: president	215 APOLENA AVENUE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92662
James K Mckillop	director, 10 percent owner, officer: vice president	9454 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 612, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212