The Chemours Co (The Chemours Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Chemours Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Chemours Co (The Chemours Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » The Chemours Co (NYSE:CC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CC:Mexico 2CU:Germany 2CU:Germany

Address

1007 Market Street, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19801

Website

https://www.chemours.com

The Chemours Co is a global provider of chemicals. It delivers customized solutions with a wide range of industrial and specialty chemicals products for various markets including coatings, plastics, refrigeration, air conditioning, etc. The company's operating segments include Titanium Technologies, Thermal & Specialized Solutions, and Advanced Performance Materials. It generates maximum revenue from the Titanium Technologies segment. The Titanium Technologies segment is a producer of TiO2 pigment, a premium white pigment used to deliver whiteness, brightness, opacity, durability, efficiency, and protection across a variety of applications. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from North America.

Executives

Ron Christopher Charles	officer: Senior Vice President, People	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Sandra Phillips Rogers	director	1000 CRANBERRY WOODS DRIVE, CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP PA 16066
Erin N Kane	director	300 KIMBALL DRIVE, SUITE 101, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Joseph T. Martinko	officer: President, Thermal & Specializ	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Mark Newman	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Alvenia Scarborough	officer: SVP Corp Communications & CBO	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Matthew S Abbott	officer: SVP, Chief Enterprise Transfor	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Guillaume Pepy	director	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Sean D Keohane	director	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Calderon Gerardo Familiar	officer: Pres Advanced Performance Mat	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Alisha Bellezza	officer: President, Thermal Spec Solns	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Camela Wisel	officer: VP, CAO & Controller	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Sameer Ralhan	officer: SVP, CFO	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19899
Jonathan Lock	officer: SVP, Chief Development Officer	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Susan M. Kelliher	officer: SVP, People and Health Service	ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 451 FLORIDA STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801