What is Choice Hotels International Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Choice Hotels International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Choice Hotels International (Choice Hotels International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Choice Hotels Circle, Suite 400, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850
As of Dec. 31, 2022, Choice Hotels operated 628,000 rooms across 13 brands addressing the economy and midscale segments. Comfort Inn and Comfort Suites are the largest brands (27% of the company's total domestic rooms), while Ascend and Cambria (7% of total domestic rooms) are newer lifestyle and select-service brands. Choice added its 13th brand with the launch of extended-stay brand Everhome in January 2020. Choice closed on its Radisson acquisition in August 2022, which will add around 70,000 rooms. Franchises are 99% of total revenue, and the United States represents 79% of total rooms in 2022.
Executives
| Dominic Dragisich |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Noha Abdalla |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| William L Jews |
director |
C/O FORTRESS INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC., 7226 LEE DEFOREST DRIVE, SUITE 203, COLUMBIA, MD 21046 |
| Scott E Oaksmith |
officer: Controller |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Patrick Cimerola |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Simone Wu |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Brian Bainum |
director |
8171 MAPLE LAWN BLVD, SUITE 375, FULTON MD 20759 |
| John P Tague |
director |
|
| David A Pepper |
officer: SVP, Franchise Development |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| John Bonds |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Sanchez Raul Ramirez |
officer: Chief Strat & Intl Op Officer |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Elizabeth A Redmond |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Donna F Vieira |
director |
300 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, NEWARK DE 19713 |
| Patrick Pacious |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Liza Landsman |
director |
1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
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