The Cigna Group (The Cigna Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Cigna Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

The Cigna Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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The Cigna Group (The Cigna Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CI:Mexico CGN:Germany CGN:Germany C1IC34:Brazil CIGN:Austria

Address

900 Cottage Grove Road, Bloomfield, CT, USA, 06002

Website

https://www.cigna.com

Cigna primarily provides pharmacy benefit management and health insurance services. Its PBM services, which were greatly expanded by its 2018 merger with Express Scripts, are mostly sold to health insurance plans and employers. Its largest PBM contract is the Department of Defense and it recently won a deal with top-tier insurer Centene. In health insurance and other benefits, Cigna mostly serves employers through self-funding arrangements, but it also operates in government programs, such as Medicare Advantage. The company operates mostly in the U.S. with 18 million U.S. medical members covered as of the end of June 2023.

Executives

Cynthia Ryan	officer: EVP, CHRO	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Z, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Nicole S Jones	officer: EVP, General Counsel	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL18Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Agoglia Hoeltzel Mary T	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, TWO LIBERTY PLACE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Brian C Evanko	officer: President Government Business	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Everett Neville	officer: EVP, Strategy and Business Dev	ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121
Paul A Sanford	officer: EVP Operations	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Z, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Phillip Ozuah	director	30 HUDSON STREET, FLOOR 33, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Donna F Zarcone	director	C/O HARLEY DAVIDSON, 3700 W. JUNEAU AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Michael W Triplett	officer: President, US Markets	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Elder Granger	director	5176 S. LEWISTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80015
David Cordani	director, officer: President & CEO	THE CIGNA GROUP, 900 COTTAGE GROVE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Jason D Sadler	officer: Pres., International Markets	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Eric P Palmer	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
David J Brailer	officer: EVP & Chief Health Officer	4 PRESIDIO TERRACE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94118
Charles Berg	officer: Pres, Govt Programs & Sr Advsr	48 MONROE TURNPIKE, TRUMBULL CT 06611